Packers D/ST or Saints D/ST: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start the Saints — the opponent giveaway and projection edges are too wide to ignore.

Saints D/ST faces the more giveaway-prone offense (4.0 sacks and 1.4 turnovers allowed per game to 1.9 and 1.1) and projects 6.6 to the Packers's 4.8. the Packers's edge is lineup share, started rank 19 to 23. The gap is comfortable.

Packers D/ST

D/STGBvs ATL

Projected Points

Sit

Saints D/ST

D/STNOvs LV

Projected Points

Start· medium
ATL@
GBThu, Sep 24, 8:15 PM ETView the game →
LV@
NOSun, Sep 27, 4:25 PM ETView the game →

Why Packers D/ST

Sit

Sit — a bottom-tier defensive matchup this week (No. 21): ATL protects the ball (1.1 turnovers a game), and 4.8 pts projected vs ATL.

  • ATL's offense gives up 1.9 sacks and 1.1 turnovers a game (2025), below league average.
  • Vegas has ATL at 19.5 points as 7.5-point dogs.
  • Started in 15% of leagues, 19th among defenses, in line with a No. 21 matchup.

Why Saints D/ST

Start· medium

DST7 projection (6.6) at home vs a Raiders line giving up 4.0 sacks and 1.4 turnovers per game, with LV implied for just 19.5.

  • LV's offense gives up 4.0 sacks and 1.4 turnovers a game (2025), well above league average.
  • Vegas has LV at 19.5 points as 3.5-point dogs.
  • Under-started: only 4% of leagues have them in, 23rd among defenses, against a No. 7 matchup.

The call

  • Opponent giveaways drive this: Las Vegas allowed 4.0 sacks and 1.4 turnovers per game over 17 games, a strong floor for sack and takeaway points.
  • Game script sets up well. The Saints are 3.5-point home favorites and LV's implied total is only 19.5, in line with the 19.0 points-allowed projection.
  • The DST7 ranking and 6.6 projected points put this defense squarely in startable range in 12-team leagues, backed by 2.0 projected sacks and 0.9 interceptions.
  • Only 4% of leagues start it (crowd rank 23 of 32), so it's likely on waivers. The projection hasn't reached lineup share yet, and that's an opportunity rather than a warning sign.

Head-to-head stats

MetricPackers D/STSaints D/ST
Projected points
Projection rankProj.DST21Proj.DST7
Started in15% of leagues4% of leagues
Opponent sacks allowed / game1.9(2025)4.0(2025)
Opponent turnovers / game1.1(2025)1.4(2025)
Opponent implied total19.519.5
Home / awayHomeHome
Start/Sit record0–2—

Recent form

Packers D/ST — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs NYJ
Week 1vs MIN

Saints D/ST — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs BAL
Week 1vs DET

Signal breakdown

  • 4.8 vs 6.6 projected PPR pointsSaints D/ST +
  • Started rank 19 vs 23 (15% vs 4% of leagues)Packers D/ST +
  • 1.9 sacks / 1.1 TO vs 4.0 sacks / 1.4 TO per game allowedSaints D/ST +
  • Opponent implied 19.5 vs 19.5 pointseven
  • Home vs Homeeven

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