DK Metcalf or Mark Andrews: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Andrews' scoring environment gives him the narrow edge over Metcalf

Start Andrews, though Metcalf’s almost identical projection makes this a slim preference rather than a comfortable call. Andrews pairs a concentrated target role with a much stronger team scoring outlook, and his red-zone mismatch gives that environment a direct route to fantasy points (ESPN 2026-10-01). Metcalf’s every-down vertical role is a real counter, but Andrews’ tough Tennessee matchup is the main risk; its three-game sample is too thin to treat as settled evidence.

What flips it: A material drop in Andrews’ target share.

Sources: ESPN · Sep 27, 2026 · ESPN · Oct 1, 2026

AI editor

DK Metcalf

DK Metcalf

WR32PITvs CLE

Projected Points

Toss-Up
Mark Andrews

Mark Andrews

TE15BALvs TEN

Projected Points

Start· low

DK Metcalf’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
-138 / +108
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 45.5
-113 / -113
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+230
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Mark Andrews’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
-156 / +122
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 34.5
-114 / -114
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+150
Anytime Touchdown Props →
PIT@
CLEThu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ETView the game →
TEN@
BALSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why DK Metcalf

Toss-Up

WR1 and primary vertical threat. Rare size-speed combination, dominant on go balls and back-shoulder throws.

Toss-up — WR32 consensus, projects WR42 this week: CLE is the 11th-softest matchup vs WRs, 23% target share.

  • Metcalf’s vertical-threat profile can turn a limited number of chances into chunk gains (ESPN 2026-09-27).
  • His near-every-down role gives him more route access than Andrews has.

Latest on Metcalf

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Mark Andrews

Start· low

TE1 and red-zone mismatch. Veteran seam-stretcher with strong hands and quarterback rapport.

A 25% target share on a 28.0-point implied offense outweighs a tough, thin-sample TEN matchup. TE15 makes him a fringe TE1 start.

  • Andrews’ red-zone mismatch gives his offense a direct touchdown path through the tight end (ESPN 2026-10-01).
  • His concentrated target role helps him capitalize on Baltimore’s stronger scoring outlook.

The call

  • Usage is the anchor. A 25% target share over 3 games is TE1-caliber volume, even with a modest 65% snap share.
  • The offense should score. A 28.0 implied team total means plenty of red-zone trips, and Andrews has touchdown upside on every one.
  • The matchup looks bad on paper: TEN ranks 5 of 32 vs TEs. That is only a 3-game sample at 0.25 confidence, so don't overweight it.
  • Risks: the -8.5 spread could produce a run-heavy second half that cuts his routes, and a 10.0 projection at TE15 sits near replacement level. Pivot only if you have a TE ranked inside the top 12 with a softer matchup. The ESPN headline about Mike Clay being 'conflicted' is unverified and doesn't change the read.

Latest on Andrews

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricDK MetcalfMark Andrews
Projected points
Consensus rankWR32TE15
Opponent vs positionCLE · 22 of 323-game sampleTEN · 5 of 323-game sample
Receptions14 of 326 of 32
Receiving Yards17 of 321 of 32
Receiving TDs29 of 321 of 32
Targets19 of 326 of 32
Anytime TD29 of 329 of 32
Target share23%25%
Reception share18%25%
Implied total · spread21.5-2.528.0-8.5
Depth chartWR1TE1
Snap share96%65%
Start/Sit record0–11–2

Recent form

DK Metcalf — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs CIN
Week 2vs NE
Week 1vs ATL

Mark Andrews — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs DAL
Week 2vs NO
Week 1vs IND

Signal breakdown

  • 10.1 vs 10.0 projected PPR pointsDK Metcalf +
  • Rank 32 vs 15Mark Andrews +
  • Opponent DvP rank 22 vs 5 (32 = softest)DK Metcalf +
  • Implied 21.5 vs 28.0 team pointsMark Andrews +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 96% vs 65% snap shareDK Metcalf +

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