Start Garrett Wilson over DJ Moore — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Wilson — the consensus rank and projection edges are too wide to ignore.

Garrett Wilson is the higher consensus play (WR12 to WR31) and projects 14.8 to Moore's 11.6. Moore's edge is the game script, 23.5 implied points to 18.3. The gap is comfortable.

DJ Moore

WR31BUFvs HOU

7.79.711.6 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Garrett Wilson

WR12NYJvs TEN

8.911.814.8 Projected Points

Start

Why DJ Moore

Toss-Up· medium

WR1 and primary target. Physical yards-after-catch separator with occasional gadget rushing and trick-play usage.

WR31 at 11.6 projected is right on the flex line: 85% snap share is real, but a 16% target share and a fresh post-trade role cap the ceiling.

HOU ranks 7 of 32 against WRs (one of the tougher matchups, 0-game sample).
Vegas implies 23.5 team points as 1.5-point favorites.
Listed WR on the latest depth chart with a 85% snap share in 2025.

The call

Volume case is thin for a confident start — 85% snap share means he's on the field, but a 16% target share over 17 games is low-end WR3 usage, and 11.6 projected points is exactly replacement-level flex output.
Game script helps: a 1.5-point spread with a 23.5 implied team total means a competitive, two-way game with no reason to expect the offense to stall out or go run-heavy in a blowout.
Matchup grades tough on paper (7 of 32, where 32 is softest), but the composite is built on a 0-game sample at 0.00 confidence, so it shouldn't be the deciding input either way.
Tipping point: if he's confirmed as the clear No. 1 target in his new offense after the trade to Buffalo, start him as a WR3; if the target share stays near 16% behind another alpha, a higher-volume flex is the better play.

Latest on Moore

Role

DJ Moore is no longer a Chicago Bear; he was traded to the Buffalo Bills, ending his run with Chicago and shifting the Bears' No. 1 receiver duties to Rome Odunze for Week 1 2026.

ESPN · Sep 4, 2026

Why Garrett Wilson

Start

WR1 and alpha target. Elite separation quickness and contested-catch skill; missed time cut his sample last season.

Start — every-week WR start at consensus WR12: TEN is the 10th-softest matchup vs WRs, 18.3 implied team total caps the ceiling.

TEN ranks 23 of 32 against WRs (one of the softer matchups, 0-game sample).
Vegas implies 18.3 team points as 3.0-point underdogs.
Listed WR on the latest depth chart with a 87% snap share in 2025.

Latest on Wilson

Garrett Wilson 'optimistic' heading into 2026 season

Rich Cimini reports on Garrett Wilson's expectations for the Jets this upcoming NFL season.

VideoESPN · Sep 8, 2026

Wilson calls ending Jets' playoff drought 'very realistic'

Garrett Wilson said breaking the Jets' 15-year playoff drought feels "very realistic" and went as far as stating that was the goal this season.

ESPN · Sep 8, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	DJ Moore	Garrett Wilson
Projected points	7.79.711.6	8.911.814.8
Consensus rank	WR31	WR12
Opponent vs position	HOU · 7 of 320-game sample	TEN · 23 of 320-game sample
Receptions	4 of 32	25 of 32
Receiving Yards	11 of 32	29 of 32
Receiving TDs	5 of 32	27 of 32
Targets	12 of 32	13 of 32
Anytime TD	4 of 32	22 of 32
Target share	16%(2025)	30%(2025)
Reception share	15%(2025)	29%(2025)
Implied total · spread	23.5-1.5	18.3+3.0
Depth chart	WR1	WR1
Snap share	85%(2025)	87%(2025)
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	—