DeVonta Smith or Khalil Shakir: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Smith — the projection and consensus rank edges are too wide to ignore.
DeVonta Smith projects 15.6 to Shakir's 10.3 and is the higher consensus play (WR16 to WR48). Shakir's edge is the game script, 25.8 implied points to 22.5. The gap is wide.
DeVonta Smith
WR16PHIvs CHI
9.812.715.6 Projected Points
Start
Khalil Shakir
WR48BUFvs LAC
6.38.310.3 Projected Points
Start· medium
DeVonta Smith’s market
Khalil Shakir’s market
Why DeVonta Smith
StartWR1-caliber outside receiver. Elite route technician with reliable hands and high target volume.
Start — every-week WR start at consensus WR16: CHI is the 10th-toughest matchup vs WRs, 34% target share.
- CHI ranks 10 of 32 against WRs (one of the tougher matchups, 2-game sample).
- Vegas implies 22.5 team points as 1.5-point underdogs.
- Listed WR on the latest depth chart with a 92% snap share.
Latest on Smith
Status
DeVonta Smith did not participate in practice Thursday with a hamstring injury.
Philadelphia Eagles · Sep 25, 2026Through two games this season, Smith had 19 targets, 13 receptions and 170 receiving yards, ranking sixth, seventh and 13th among pass catchers, respectively.
Eagles' DeVonta Smith is headed into another stratosphereESPN · Sep 28, 2026Why Khalil Shakir
Start· mediumStarting slot WR and chain-mover. Reliable hands, elusive after the catch, high catch rate.
21% target share in a 25.8-implied-total Bills offense makes Shakir a viable PPR flex despite the WR48 tag; slot volume travels regardless of matchup.
- LAC ranks 21 of 32 against WRs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 2-game sample).
- Vegas implies 25.8 team points as 3.0-point favorites.
- Listed WR-2 on the latest depth chart with a 51% snap share.
The call
- A 21% target share is WR1-level usage on this offense even with just a 51% snap rate — he's a high-efficiency slot piece who sees the ball whenever he's on the field, which is what PPR pays for.
- Buffalo's 25.8 implied total and -3.0 spread point to a positive, high-volume script where Shakir works the intermediate middle rather than getting game-planned out.
- The Chargers grade 21 of 32 in DvP versus wideouts — a mild edge, though the 2-game sample carries 0.00 confidence, so don't lean on the matchup itself.
- Risk is the 51% snap share: as WR-2 in a rotation, one script swing or a quiet target game leaves him around 7-8 points, so he's a flex rather than a set-and-forget WR3.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | DeVonta Smith | Khalil Shakir |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 9.812.715.6 | 6.38.310.3 |
| Consensus rank | WR16 | WR48 |
| Opponent vs position | CHI · 10 of 322-game sample | LAC · 21 of 322-game sample |
| Receptions | 1 of 32 | 21 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 17 of 32 | 25 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | 14 of 32 | 23 of 32 |
| Targets | 6 of 32 | 14 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 13 of 32 | 23 of 32 |
| Target share | 34% | 21% |
| Reception share | 33% | 18% |
| Implied total · spread | 22.5+1.5 | 25.8-3.0 |
| Depth chart | WR1 | WR2 |
| Snap share | 92% | 51% |
| Start/Sit record | — | 0–1+1 toss-up |
Recent form
DeVonta Smith — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs TEN | 17.722.727.7 |
| Week 1 | vs WSH | 5.36.88.3 |
Khalil Shakir — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs DET | 3.85.36.8 |
| Week 1 | vs HOU | 5.07.09.0 |
Signal breakdown
- 15.6 vs 10.3 projected PPR pointsDeVonta Smith +
- Rank 16 vs 48DeVonta Smith +
- Opponent DvP rank 10 vs 21 (32 = softest)even
- Implied 22.5 vs 25.8 team pointsKhalil Shakir +
- No injury designationseven
- 92% vs 51% snap shareDeVonta Smith +
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