Devaughn Vele or Mark Andrews: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Vele's every-down role meets Andrews' scoring-environment edge

Vele has the sturdier route-volume foundation, while his small projected edge is too slight to decide this matchup on its own. Andrews counters with a stronger scoring environment and a bigger share of his team's targets, giving his TE1 role real upside despite fewer snaps. Vele's tougher-looking matchup comes from a low-confidence two-game sample; the key risk on both sides is treating early usage as settled.

What flips it: A meaningful shift in either player's target role after another week of usage.

AI editor

Devaughn Vele

Devaughn Vele

WRNOvs LV

Projected Points

Start· medium
Mark Andrews

Mark Andrews

TE15BALvs DAL

Projected Points

Start· medium

Devaughn Vele’s market

REC
O/U 4.5
+115 / -146
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 48.5
-113 / -113
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+285
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Mark Andrews’s market

REC
O/U 4.5
+100 / -127
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 40.5
-113 / -113
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+125
Anytime Touchdown Props →
LV@
NOSun, Sep 27, 4:25 PM ETView the game →
BAL@
DALSun, Sep 27, 4:25 PM ETView the game →

Why Devaughn Vele

Start· medium

Starting WR with rare size. Big-bodied contested-catch target in the intermediate game.

94% snap share and a locked WR-2 role with 19% target share make Vele a playable PPR flex at 11.5 projected, even against a top-10 DvP unit.

  • His rare size creates a contested-catch path on intermediate routes, beyond volume-dependent PPR value.
  • The apparent matchup hurdle rests on only two games of data, with no confidence in the sample.

The call

  • Role is not in question: 94% snap share through two games with a 19% target share means he's on the field for everything as the WR-2, and that volume floor is what flex plays live on in PPR.
  • The 11.5-point projection lands him in solid FLEX/WR3 territory — clearly above a typical replacement option in a 12-team league.
  • The matchup grades tough (7 of 32 vs the position), but that composite comes off a 2-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so it's not reliable enough to bench a full-time receiver over.
  • Game script is neutral-to-good: 23.0 implied team total as a 3.5-point favorite keeps the offense on schedule without forcing a pass-heavy blowout chase — the main risk is a run-out-the-clock win that caps his targets.

Latest on Vele

Saints QB Tyler Shough expects less jitters vs. Ravens

The 26-year-old starter is the first to say he and his New Orleans team will fight through the adversity.

ESPN · Sep 18, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Mark Andrews

Start· medium

TE1 and red-zone mismatch. Veteran seam-stretcher with strong hands and quarterback rapport.

25% target share and 72% snaps in a 27.0-point implied offense make Andrews a viable TE1 fringe start at TE15 despite a neutral DAL matchup.

  • Andrews' red-zone mismatch can make his targets especially valuable when Baltimore reaches scoring range.
  • Fewer snaps leave less margin if Baltimore's scoring opportunities don't materialize.

The call

  • Usage is the driver: a 25% target share over 2 games is elite for a tight end, and his 72% snap share locks him into the base role.
  • Game environment helps. A 27.0 implied team total with a -2.5 spread points to a competitive, scoring-friendly script with red-zone chances.
  • The matchup is neutral at best. DAL ranks 21 of 32 in the DvP composite, but that rests on a 2-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so it shouldn't move the call much either way.
  • Risk: the 10.2 projection and TE15 rank put him in streamer territory, and the 2-game usage sample could regress. He still clears a typical replacement TE, and no injury designation removes availability concerns.

Head-to-head stats

MetricDevaughn VeleMark Andrews
Projected points
Consensus rank—TE15
Opponent vs positionLV · 7 of 322-game sampleDAL · 21 of 322-game sample
Receptions2 of 3221 of 32
Receiving Yards15 of 3219 of 32
Receiving TDs1 of 3226 of 32
Targets14 of 3211 of 32
Anytime TD1 of 3226 of 32
Target share19%25%
Reception share19%26%
Implied total · spread23.0-3.527.0-2.5
Depth chartWR2TE1
Snap share94%72%
Start/Sit record1–01–1

Recent form

Devaughn Vele — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs BAL
Week 1vs DET

Mark Andrews — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs NO
Week 1vs IND

Signal breakdown

  • 11.5 vs 10.2 projected PPR pointsDevaughn Vele +
  • Consensus position rankeven
  • Opponent DvP rank 7 vs 21 (32 = softest)even
  • Implied 23.0 vs 27.0 team pointsMark Andrews +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 94% vs 72% snap shareDevaughn Vele +

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