Lions D/ST or Dolphins D/ST: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start the Lions — the lineup-share and projection edges are too wide to ignore.

Lions D/ST is started in more leagues (started rank 13 to 31) and projects 6.6 to the Dolphins's 2.6. No signal favors the Dolphins this week. The gap is wide.

Lions D/ST

D/STDETvs NYJ

Projected Points

Start· high

Dolphins D/ST

D/STMIAvs KC

Projected Points

Sit
NYJ@
DETSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
KC@
MIASun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why Lions D/ST

Start· high

DST6 projection at home vs a Jets offense allowing 3.8 sacks and 1.4 turnovers per game, with NYJ implied for just 18.0 as 9.5-point underdogs.

  • NYJ's offense gives up 3.8 sacks and 1.4 turnovers a game (2025), well above league average.
  • Vegas has NYJ at 18 points as 9.5-point dogs.
  • Under-started: only 39% of leagues have them in, 13th among defenses, against a No. 6 matchup.

The call

  • Opponent profile is the driver: NYJ gave up 3.8 sacks and 1.4 turnovers per game across 17 games in 2025, which feeds the projected 2.9 sacks and 0.7 interceptions.
  • Vegas backs it: Detroit is a 9.5-point home favorite and the Jets' implied total is only 18.0, a script that forces NYJ to pass from behind and creates more sack and turnover chances.
  • At 6.6 projected points, the Lions rank DST6 among 32 defenses, a clear upgrade over a typical waiver-wire defense.
  • Crowd lineup share (39%, rank 13) trails the projection, so this is a spot where the matchup outruns name value. The 20.4 projected points allowed caps the ceiling slightly but doesn't change the call.

Why Dolphins D/ST

Sit

Sit — a bottom-tier defensive matchup this week (No. 31): KC protects the ball (0.7 turnovers a game), and Vegas has them at 26 points.

  • KC's offense gives up 1.3 sacks and 0.7 turnovers a game, below league average.
  • Vegas has KC at 26 points as 7.5-point favorites.
  • Started in 0% of leagues, 31st among defenses, in line with a No. 31 matchup.

Head-to-head stats

MetricLions D/STDolphins D/ST
Projected points
Projection rankProj.DST6Proj.DST31
Started in39% of leagues0% of leagues
Opponent sacks allowed / game3.8(2025)1.3
Opponent turnovers / game1.4(2025)0.7
Opponent implied total18.026.0
Home / awayHomeHome
Start/Sit record—0–0+1 toss-up

Recent form

Lions D/ST — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs BUF
Week 1vs NO

Dolphins D/ST — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs SF
Week 1vs LV

Signal breakdown

  • 6.6 vs 2.6 projected PPR pointsLions D/ST +
  • Started rank 13 vs 31 (39% vs 0% of leagues)Lions D/ST +
  • 3.8 sacks / 1.4 TO vs 1.3 sacks / 0.7 TO per game allowedLions D/ST +
  • Opponent implied 18.0 vs 26.0 pointsLions D/ST +
  • Home vs Homeeven

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