Start Quentin Johnston over Deebo Samuel Sr. — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Johnston's plus game script outweighs Samuel's target-share edge

Johnston is a bigger, contested-catch outside WR2 who scores in the red zone, and that profile fits perfectly with a Chargers offense expected to blow the doors off Arizona. Samuel actually commands a larger slice of San Francisco's targets, but a 49ers offense implied for six fewer points and playing in a near-even game simply generates less total opportunity. The rank and projection gaps here are small on their own, but stacked with the game-script split they add up to a real edge for Johnston, not a coin flip. Both remain touchdown-or-bust flex plays you start for upside, not for target volume alone.

What flips it: A 49ers camp report (ESPN 2026-08-25) surfacing a real target-share bump for Samuel, or Johnston's spread tightening significantly.

Sources: ESPN · Aug 25, 2026

AI editor

Deebo Samuel Sr.

WR52SFvs LAR

5.87.38.9 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Quentin Johnston

WR48LACvs ARI

7.38.810.4 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Deebo Samuel Sr.

Toss-Up· medium

24% target share and a 72% snap rate give him a real PPR floor, but a WR52 consensus rank and 8.9 projection make him a flex-only dart.

24% target share is the best number on this sheet and gives him the safer PPR catch-volume floor
No new role change surfaced in 49ers camp coverage, so his current usage should hold

The call

The usage is legit: a 24% target share on a 72% snap rate over 16 games is WR1-level volume for this offense, and that alone keeps him startable in deeper PPR builds.
The market disagrees — consensus has him WR52 at 8.9 projected points, which is below a typical 12-team starter and screams low expected efficiency on those looks.
Matchup gives no edge either way: the LAR DvP composite sits 21 of 32 on a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so there's nothing there to break the tie.
Game script is neutral-to-fine with a 22.8 implied team total and a 3.0 spread — close games keep the volume flowing. Start him if you need target floor; sit him if you have a WR3 with a defined red-zone or big-play role.

Latest on Samuel

2026 San Francisco 49ers training camp: Latest intel, updates

Catch up on our daily updates from 49ers training camp, including intel on QBs, position battles and potential breakouts.

ESPN · Aug 25, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Quentin Johnston

Start· medium

Outside WR2 with size and contested-catch ability. Big-bodied perimeter target with red-zone scoring role.

20% target share and 79% snaps in a 28.5-implied-total offense — Johnston is a locked-in flex even as the WR48 consensus undersells the volume.

Playing as a heavy favorite means more red-zone snaps for a big-bodied scoring threat like him
79% snap share shows he's on the field more even though he sees fewer designed targets

The call

Role is not in question: 79% snap share and a 20% target share over 13 games make him the clear No. 2 target in this passing game.
Vegas paints an ideal scoring environment — a 28.5 implied team total with the Chargers favored by 11.5 means plenty of red-zone trips and touchdown equity.
The Arizona matchup is dead neutral (15 of 32 DvP composite, and that composite carries a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence), so it neither helps nor hurts the case.
Main risk is script: an 11.5-point favorite can grind out the fourth quarter on the ground, capping his target volume relative to the 10.4 projection.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Deebo Samuel Sr.	Quentin Johnston
Projected points	5.87.38.9	7.38.810.4
Consensus rank	WR52	WR48
Opponent vs position	LAR · 21 of 320-game sample	ARI · 15 of 320-game sample
Receptions	23 of 32	18 of 32
Receiving Yards	23 of 32	17 of 32
Receiving TDs	14 of 32	11 of 32
Targets	27 of 32	14 of 32
Anytime TD	18 of 32	13 of 32
Target share	24%(2025)	20%(2025)
Reception share	27%(2025)	18%(2025)
Implied total · spread	22.8+3.0	28.5-11.5
Depth chart	WR2	WR2
Snap share	72%(2025)	79%(2025)
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	—