Darren Waller or Isaiah Likely: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 4 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Likely’s receiving role outweighs Waller’s dream matchup

Start Likely: his larger share of the passing game and stronger scoring environment give him the steadier path. Waller gets the softest tight-end matchup, but that three-game DvP sample is a fragile counterweight to his limited involvement. Likely’s lead is meaningful at tight end, though Waller’s documented red-zone connection with Bryce Young gives him a real touchdown route (ESPN 2026-09-24). The risk with Likely is week-to-week volatility: his 3.3-point outing last week shows that opportunity does not guarantee production.

What flips it: A sustained drop in Likely’s target involvement would swing this to Waller.

Sources: ESPN · Sep 24, 2026

AI editor

Darren Waller

Darren Waller

TECARvs DET

Projected Points

Toss-Up· low
Isaiah Likely

Isaiah Likely

TE14NYGvs ARI

Projected Points

Start· medium

Darren Waller’s market

REC
O/U 2.5
-165 / +129
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 27.5
-115 / -109
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+255
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Isaiah Likely’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
-162 / +127
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 39.5
-113 / -111
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+290
Anytime Touchdown Props →
DET@
CARSun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ETView the game →
ARI@
NYGSun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why Darren Waller

Toss-Up· low

Backup TE and veteran pass-catching weapon. Former Pro Bowl-caliber mismatch target back from retirement, still a red-zone threat in a reduced snap share.

Softest TE matchup (32 of 32) and 2 TDs in 3 games pull him up, but a 43% snap share and 12% target share keep a 9.3-point floor shaky.

  • Young’s red-zone connection with Waller gives him a credible touchdown ceiling.
  • Detroit’s soft matchup is a genuine advantage if Waller earns more routes.

The call

  • Matchup is the selling point: DET grades 32 of 32 vs TEs, the softest in the league, though it rests on a 3-game sample at 0.25 confidence, so treat it as a lean, not a lock.
  • Production has been real. CBS Sports reports he led the Panthers in receptions and targets with 10 catches for 112 yards and two TDs through three games. The 22.3 implied team total supports another scoring chance.
  • Usage is the red flag. A 43% snap share and 12% target share are part-time numbers for a TE, so his output leans on touchdowns. The ESPN top-10 headline is unverified.
  • What tips it: start him over a TE with a similar 9-point projection but a weaker matchup. Sit him for any every-down TE with a steadier target share.

Latest on Waller

Role

Clicked frequently with Bryce Young, leading Panthers in receptions and targets while recording 10 catches for 112 yards and two TDs in first three games.

CBS Sports · Sep 29, 2026
Panthers' Bryce Young to Darren Waller has been money in red zone

The veteran tight end's height, catch radius and history of red zone success make him a tough cover in big moments.

ESPN · Sep 24, 2026
Darren Waller shines in his homecoming, with a full-circle, two-touchdown day for the Panthers

The veteran tight end played in his hometown for the first time in six years and reminded everyone why he's one of the most feared red zone options on the field.

panthers.com · Sep 20, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Isaiah Likely

Start· medium

Starting TE and pass-catching mismatch. Athletic seam-stretcher with red-zone flex ability.

28% target share over 3 games in an offense implied for 26.3 points makes Likely a viable TE1 fringe start at TE14 despite a neutral matchup.

  • Likely’s seam-stretching profile can turn his receiving role into chunk gains, not just routine targets.
  • A starting, pass-catching role gives him more ways to contribute than a touchdown-dependent play.

The call

  • Usage is the driver: a 28% target share is elite for a tight end and gives him a stable PPR floor, even at a 67% snap share.
  • Game environment helps. A 26.3 implied team total and a -7.0 spread point to plenty of scoring chances, including red-zone looks.
  • The matchup is neutral at 19 of 32, and it rests on a thin 3-game sample (confidence 0.25), so it shouldn't move the call much either way.
  • The 11.7 projection and TE14 rank put him on the TE1/TE2 border. With no injury designation, he's a start over typical replacement-level tight ends in 12-team leagues.

Head-to-head stats

MetricDarren WallerIsaiah Likely
Projected points
Consensus rank—TE14
Opponent vs positionDET · 32 of 323-game sampleARI · 19 of 323-game sample
Receptions32 of 3217 of 32
Receiving Yards32 of 3223 of 32
Receiving TDs32 of 3218 of 32
Targets32 of 329 of 32
Anytime TD32 of 3226 of 32
Target share12%28%
Reception share14%29%
Implied total · spread22.3+3.026.3-7.0
Depth chartTE2TE1
Snap share43%67%
Start/Sit record0–0+1 toss-up1–2

Recent form

Darren Waller — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs CLE
Week 2vs ATL
Week 1vs CHI

Isaiah Likely — last 3 weeks

Week 3vs TEN
Week 2vs LAR
Week 1vs DAL

Signal breakdown

  • 9.3 vs 11.7 projected PPR pointsIsaiah Likely +
  • Consensus position rankeven
  • Opponent DvP rank 32 vs 19 (32 = softest)Darren Waller +
  • Implied 22.3 vs 26.3 team pointsIsaiah Likely +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 43% vs 67% snap shareIsaiah Likely +

Compare different players

Week 4217 players
Player A
vs
Player B

Every fantasy-relevant player this week — search or filter by position.

More Waller comparisons

More Likely comparisons

This week’s toughest calls

Start/Sit Board•Weekly Rankings•Streamers•Sleepers & Busts•Waiver Wire•My Team•MLB NRFI Board•Free Tools•NFL Props•NFL Games

Get a Start/Sit call on your whole roster →

Save your team once and see a Start, Sit, or Toss-Up verdict on every player, every week — with the matchup, usage and game-script evidence behind each call.

Add to My Team — free

Or browse this week’s NFL games or NFL player props.