Dalton Schultz or Quentin Johnston: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Schultz’s dependable middle-of-field role edges Johnston’s wider range of outcomes
Start Schultz, but the edge is narrow: Johnston’s slight projection advantage is not enough to outweigh Schultz’s much stronger standing among tight ends. Schultz’s 25% target share and chain-moving role give him a reliable path to involvement, while the team totals and matchups do little to separate them. Johnston’s heavier snap load and contested-catch, red-zone ability make him a live alternative, especially if McConkey’s rib issue limits him (SI.com 2026-09-20). Schultz’s risk is that his 67% snap share leaves less room for opportunity if his role contracts.
What flips it: A larger role for Johnston if McConkey is limited.
Sources: SI.com · Sep 20, 2026
AI editor
In standard scoring this is a coin flip.
Dalton Schultz
5.37.49.5 Projected Points
Quentin Johnston
7.49.210.9 Projected Points
Dalton Schultz’s market
Quentin Johnston’s market
Why Dalton Schultz
StartTE1 in high-volume pass-catching role. Reliable chain-mover over the middle with sure hands.
Start — TE21 consensus, projects TE15 this week: IND is the 10th-softest matchup vs TEs, 25% target share.
- His high-volume work over the middle gives you a steadier route to catches than Johnston’s contested-catch profile.
- The concern: a 67% snap share could cap his chances if Houston’s tight-end rotation grows.
Why Quentin Johnston
Toss-Up· mediumStarting outside WR2. Big-bodied contested-catch target with red-zone scoring production.
WR47 at 10.9 projected sits below the 12-team start line, but 80% snaps and a 21% target share plus McConkey's rib doubt make him a live flex.
- Johnston’s outside role and red-zone production offer a scoring path even if his recent results have been quiet.
- McConkey’s rib issue could free up more targets for Johnston if it limits his teammate (SI.com 2026-09-20).
The call
- The role is real: 80% snap share and a 21% target share as the WR-2 means volume isn't the question — the ceiling is. A 10.9-point projection and WR47 consensus rank land him just outside typical 12-team starter territory.
- Matchup helps at the margins: Buffalo grades 26 of 32 in DvP composite (32 = softest), though that's a 2-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so don't lean hard on it.
- Game script is neutral-to-slightly negative — a 22.8 implied team total with a 3.0 spread suggests a moderate-scoring game rather than the pass-heavy chase script Johnston needs for a spike week.
- What tips it: if McConkey is out or limited by the rib injury, Johnston inherits the alpha target share and becomes a confident flex start. If McConkey plays full snaps, bench him for a safer floor.
Latest on Johnston
With McConkey's status in doubt for Week 2, the Chargers were expected to lean more on Quentin Johnston, and bettors were told his target share could increase further if McConkey's rib injury limited him.
SI.com · Sep 20, 2026Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Dalton Schultz | Quentin Johnston |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 5.37.49.5 | 7.49.210.9 |
| Consensus rank | TE21 | WR47 |
| Opponent vs position | IND · 23 of 322-game sample | BUF · 26 of 322-game sample |
| Receptions | 29 of 32 | 27 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 29 of 32 | 29 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | 15 of 32 | 22 of 32 |
| Targets | 29 of 32 | 31 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 13 of 32 | 22 of 32 |
| Target share | 25% | 21% |
| Reception share | 29% | 9% |
| Implied total · spread | 23.5-1.5 | 22.8+3.0 |
| Depth chart | TE1 | WR2 |
| Snap share | 67% | 80% |
| Start/Sit record | — | 0–2+1 toss-up |
Recent form
Dalton Schultz — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs CIN | 14.020.026.0 |
| Week 1 | vs BUF | 3.55.57.5 |
Quentin Johnston — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs LV | 1.41.92.4 |
| Week 1 | vs ARI | 1.72.73.7 |
Signal breakdown
- 9.5 vs 10.9 projected PPR pointsQuentin Johnston +
- Rank 21 vs 47Dalton Schultz +
- Opponent DvP rank 23 vs 26 (32 = softest)even
- Implied 23.5 vs 22.8 team pointsDalton Schultz +
- No injury designationseven
- 67% vs 80% snap shareQuentin Johnston +
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