Dalton Schultz or Kyle Pitts Sr.: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Pitts's role edge outweighs Schultz's plus matchup

Pitts is the clear TE7 for a reason: near-every-snap usage and a 23% target share are the kind of volume that survives a modest team total. Schultz's matchup against Buffalo looks great on paper, but that DvP read comes with zero games of sample this season, which is why the model gives it no real weight here. The tale of the tape is usage and draft-market rank, not the scoreboard projection — Pitts's two-point edge is smaller than his role gap suggests. Both are legitimate starts, but Pitts is the safer lean in any PPR format.

What flips it: A confirmed pass-catching-role increase or injury elsewhere on Houston's offense that boosts Schultz's target share materially.

AI editor

Dalton Schultz

Dalton Schultz

TE21HOUvs BUF

Projected Points

Start
Kyle Pitts Sr.

Kyle Pitts Sr.

TE7ATLvs PIT

Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Dalton Schultz

Start

Starting TE in pass-catching role. Reliable underneath/intermediate target with high-volume reception floor.

Start — TE21 consensus, projects TE19 this week: BUF is the 3rd-toughest matchup vs TEs, 19% target share in 2025.

  • Best implied team total of the two, and Houston's game script could lean on underneath looks.
  • High-floor role: 71% snaps and a steady target diet make him a reliable start even without name-value.

Why Kyle Pitts Sr.

Start· medium

Starting TE in pass-catching role. Mismatch seam-stretcher with rare athletic profile; high target volume in passing game.

TE7 with an 88% snap share and 23% target share — that volume plays in any 12-team PPR lineup, even in a modest 19.8-point team total.

  • Near every-snap usage (88%) makes him hard to bench regardless of Atlanta's total.
  • Target share edge (23% vs 19%) plus his TE7 consensus rank reflect a bigger role, not just matchup luck.

The call

  • A 23% target share at tight end is elite-tier usage, and the 88% snap rate means Pitts is on the field for every situational package — that floor alone clears replacement level at a thin position.
  • Consensus has him TE7 at 10.4 projected points; you are not finding a better option on the waiver wire in a 12-team league.
  • The DvP composite lists Pittsburgh 27 of 32 (32 = softest), but it carries a 0-game sample and 0.00 confidence, so treat it as neutral rather than a bonus.
  • The real drag is the 19.8 implied team total with a 3.0-point spread — a low-scoring script caps the ceiling, but the target volume protects the floor.

Head-to-head stats

MetricDalton SchultzKyle Pitts Sr.
Projected points
Consensus rankTE21TE7
Opponent vs positionBUF · 3 of 320-game samplePIT · 27 of 320-game sample
Receptions1 of 3229 of 32
Receiving Yards2 of 3228 of 32
Receiving TDs6 of 3226 of 32
Targets1 of 3228 of 32
Anytime TD5 of 3226 of 32
Target share19%(2025)23%(2025)
Reception share23%(2025)27%(2025)
Implied total · spread22.0+1.519.8+3.0
Depth chartTE1TE1
Snap share71%(2025)88%(2025)

Signal breakdown

  • 8.4 vs 10.4 projected PPR pointsKyle Pitts Sr. +
  • Rank 21 vs 7Kyle Pitts Sr. +
  • Opponent DvP rank 3 vs 27 (32 = softest)even
  • Implied 22.0 vs 19.8 team pointsDalton Schultz +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 71% vs 88% snap shareKyle Pitts Sr. +

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