Start Juwan Johnson over Dalton Schultz — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Juwan Johnson for the steadier tight-end role and better game-script fit

Juwan Johnson gets the nod because his every-down role and underdog script give him the sturdier path to usable volume, a view supported by the Saints outlook (ESPN 2026-09-08). Dalton Schultz has the better team scoring environment and a slightly stronger target profile, so this is a narrow edge rather than a clear miss. Johnson’s converted-receiver skill set adds red-zone and intermediate upside, while the real risk is New Orleans falling so far behind that his catches become low-value recovery work.

What flips it: A late downgrade to Johnson’s role or a major Houston boost near the goal line.

Sources: ESPN · Sep 8, 2026

AI editor

Dalton Schultz

TE18HOUvs BUF

4.76.58.4 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Juwan Johnson

TE12NOvs DET

4.86.88.8 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Dalton Schultz

Toss-Up

TE1 in high-volume pass-catching role. Reliable chain-mover over the middle with sure hands.

Toss-up — TE18 consensus, projects TE19 this week: 19% target share in 2025, 8.4 PPR projected vs BUF.

Houston’s higher scoring expectation gives Schultz the cleaner touchdown environment.
His chain-moving role is safest if the Texans control the game and sustain drives.

Why Juwan Johnson

Start· medium

TE1 and high-volume pass-catcher. Big-bodied converted receiver who is a red-zone and intermediate mismatch.

TE13 with an 18% target share and 75% snaps — a locked-in role plus a 7-point underdog script that puts the ball in the air makes him a fine streamer-plus play.

The underdog script should keep Johnson involved even if New Orleans trails.
His converted-receiver profile creates extra red-zone mismatch upside.

The call

Role is the case: 75% snap share and an 18% target share over a 17-game sample means he's a genuine primary passing-game piece, not a game-plan-dependent TE.
New Orleans is a 7-point underdog with a 20.8 implied total — trailing scripts inflate short-to-intermediate volume, and Johnson is the guy who absorbs it.
Matchup is neutral at best (19 of 32 DvP, though it's a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence), so this is a volume start rather than a matchup start.
At TE13 with 8.8 projected points and no injury designation, he clears a typical waiver-wire replacement in a 12-team PPR league; the risk is a low-scoring, low-ceiling game if the Saints' offense stalls.

Latest on Johnson

NFL fantasy outlook for Saints in 2026? Etienne, Johnson, rookie WRs

With Alvin Kamara sidelined, fantasy managers are left to wonder who will pick up the carries for New Orleans.

ESPN · Sep 7, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Dalton Schultz	Juwan Johnson
Projected points	4.76.58.4	4.86.88.8
Consensus rank	TE18	TE12
Opponent vs position	BUFno ranking yet	DETno ranking yet
Target share	19%(2025)	18%(2025)
Reception share	23%(2025)	19%(2025)
Implied total · spread	22.0+1.5	20.8+7.0
Depth chart	TE1	TE1
Snap share	71%(2025)	75%(2025)