Courtland Sutton or Mark Andrews: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Andrews’ scoring environment edges Sutton’s steadier weekly role

Mark Andrews is the better play because Baltimore’s favored, higher-scoring setup gives his red-zone role more touchdown paths than Sutton gets against Kansas City. Sutton’s projection edge is small noise beside the positional gap, though his every-down outside role and contested-catch ability give him a credible floor. The risk is that Andrews’ 62% workload leaves less margin for error if Baltimore’s scoring concentrates elsewhere.

What flips it: A late downgrade to Andrews’ availability or a major drop in Baltimore’s expected scoring environment.

AI editor

Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton

WR34DENvs KC

Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium
Mark Andrews

Mark Andrews

TE15BALvs IND

Projected Points

Start· medium

Courtland Sutton’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
-163 / +128
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 42.5
-115 / -110
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+240
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Mark Andrews’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
+115 / -147
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 35.5
-113 / -113
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+180
Anytime Touchdown Props →
DEN@
KCMon, Sep 14, 8:15 PM ETView the game →
BAL@
INDSun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why Courtland Sutton

Toss-Up· medium

WR1 and primary outside X receiver. Big-bodied contested-catch threat with red-zone and jump-ball value.

21% target share keeps Sutton flex-viable, but an 11.7-point projection and a 20.0 implied total vs KC cap the ceiling — WR34 is the definition of borderline.

  • Sutton’s primary-X role and contested-catch strength preserve touchdown upside even in a capped team environment.
  • His full-time deployment makes him the steadier volume bet if Denver falls behind.

The call

  • Role is not the question: 85% snap share and a 21% target share mean he's the primary volume outlet in this offense regardless of the WR-2 label on the depth chart.
  • The environment is the problem — a 20.0 implied team total and a 2.5-point spread point to a tight, moderate-scoring game, which caps his touchdown equity and yardage upside.
  • Consensus has him at WR34 for 11.7 PPR points, essentially replacement level for the third WR slot in a 12-team league.
  • Tiebreaker: if your alternative projects under ~11 points or plays in a lower-total game, start Sutton for the target volume; if you have a WR in a shootout, sit him.

Why Mark Andrews

Start· medium

TE1 and red-zone mismatch. Veteran seam-stretcher with strong hands and quarterback rapport.

26.5 implied total and a 17% target share keep Andrews in the TE1 mix despite a TE15 tag — he's the red-zone target in a favored offense.

  • Andrews’ red-zone mismatch profile is amplified by Baltimore’s stronger scoring environment.
  • His quarterback rapport gives the favored offense a reliable high-leverage target near the goal line.

The call

  • Baltimore's 26.5 implied team total as a 3.5-point favorite means plenty of scoring chances, and Andrews is the one target who converts those trips inside the 10.
  • A 17% target share on 62% of snaps is a route-running specialist's usage — he's not a blocker padding volume, he's the designed passing-game piece.
  • TE15 and 10.1 projected points is exactly the tier where touchdown equity breaks ties, and Andrews carries more of it than almost anyone ranked near him.
  • Risk is the 62% snap share capping his floor if Baltimore grinds out a lead on the ground — he's a start, not a set-and-forget.

Head-to-head stats

MetricCourtland SuttonMark Andrews
Projected points
Consensus rankWR34TE15
Opponent vs positionKCno ranking yetINDno ranking yet
Target share21%(2025)17%(2025)
Reception share19%(2025)17%(2025)
Implied total · spread20.0+2.526.5-3.5
Depth chartWR2TE1
Snap share85%(2025)62%(2025)
Start/Sit record0–0+1 toss-up—

Signal breakdown

  • 11.7 vs 10.1 projected PPR pointsCourtland Sutton +
  • Rank 34 vs 15Mark Andrews +
  • Matchup (DvP composite)even
  • Implied 20.0 vs 26.5 team pointsMark Andrews +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 85% vs 62% snap shareCourtland Sutton +

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