Colston Loveland or Jake Ferguson: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start Loveland: elite TE standing beats Ferguson’s stronger game environment

Start Colston Loveland, but this is not a runaway: at tight end, his elite consensus standing and mismatch role create more confidence than the modest projection edge alone. Ferguson has the better game environment and slightly fuller snap role, while Dallas’ thinned-out tight end room should funnel work his way (Sports Illustrated (Cowboys On SI) 2026-09-10). Loveland’s trusted-pass-catcher role (chicagobears.com 2026-08-04) and higher ceiling outweigh that script disadvantage. The risk is Chicago’s lower scoring outlook limiting Loveland’s touchdown ceiling; Ferguson remains a strong volume-based alternative.

What flips it: A late downgrade to Loveland’s availability.

Sources: chicagobears.com · Aug 4, 2026 · Sports Illustrated (Cowboys On SI) · Sep 10, 2026

AI editor

Colston Loveland

Colston Loveland

TE3CHIvs CAR

Projected Points

Start
Jake Ferguson

Jake Ferguson

TE12DALvs NYG

Projected Points

Start· medium

Colston Loveland’s market

REC
O/U 4.5
-123 / -104
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 53.5
-113 / -113
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+160
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Jake Ferguson’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
-115 / -111
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 29.5
-111 / -113
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+280
Anytime Touchdown Props →
CHI@
CARSun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
DAL@
NYGSun, Sep 13, 8:20 PM ETView the game →

Why Colston Loveland

Start

TE1 and pass-catching mismatch. Seam-stretching move tight end with flex alignment and rising target volume.

Start — every-week TE start at consensus TE3: 16% target share in 2025, 12.1 PPR projected vs CAR.

  • His flex alignment creates mismatch opportunities that can survive a neutral or slightly unfavorable game script.
  • The lower team scoring outlook is the main threat to his touchdown ceiling.

Latest on Loveland

Role

Colston Loveland remains one of quarterback Caleb Williams' most trusted pass catchers.

'He's just a sponge right now': How Colston Loveland is evolving ahead of Year 2chicagobears.com · Aug 4, 2026
Facts vs. Feelings: In on Ladd McConkey? Out on Bucky Irving? What about Lamar Jackson?

In advance of the biggest draft weekend, Liz Loza reveals her strongest thoughts to help you have a successful draft.

ESPN · Sep 3, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Jake Ferguson

Start· medium

TE1 and high-volume receiving tight end. Reliable chain-mover and red-zone target over the middle.

TE12 with a 17% target share and thinned-out TE room behind him — Ferguson is a volume play in a one-score game with a 25-point implied total.

  • Dallas’ depleted tight end room protects Ferguson’s route volume, not just his projection (Sports Illustrated (Cowboys On SI) 2026-09-10).
  • The stronger scoring environment makes him the cleaner touchdown bet, even without Loveland’s positional edge.

The call

  • 17% target share on a 67% snap share is legitimate TE1 usage; he's the pass-catching hub at the position for Dallas, not a rotational piece.
  • Reported injuries to Schoonmaker and Michael Trigg push even more snaps and routes his way, protecting his floor.
  • Game script cooperates: a 1.5-point spread and a 25.0 implied team total mean Dallas throws in a competitive game rather than sitting on a lead.
  • Risk is touchdown-dependence — at 9.8 projected points he's a floor start rather than a ceiling swing, so he's TE12-level rather than a set-and-forget top option.

Latest on Ferguson

Role

With Schoonmaker and practice-squad TE Michael Trigg banged up, the Cowboys will lean heavily on Jake Ferguson and Brevyn Spann-Ford at tight end in Week 1 and beyond.

Sports Illustrated (Cowboys On SI), CBS Sports · Sep 10, 2026
Sources: Cowboys restructure deals of Clark, Bland, Ferguson

Veteran defensive tackle Kenny Clark, cornerback DaRon Bland and tight end Jake Ferguson had their deals reworked to give Dallas flexibility, sources said.

ESPN · Sep 4, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricColston LovelandJake Ferguson
Projected points
Consensus rankTE3TE12
Opponent vs positionCARno ranking yetNYGno ranking yet
Target share16%(2025)17%(2025)
Reception share19%(2025)20%(2025)
Implied total · spread23.5-2.525.0-1.5
Depth chartTE1TE1
Snap share65%(2025)67%(2025)

Signal breakdown

  • 12.1 vs 9.8 projected PPR pointsColston Loveland +
  • Rank 3 vs 12Colston Loveland +
  • Matchup (DvP composite)even
  • Implied 23.5 vs 25.0 team pointsJake Ferguson +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 65% vs 67% snap shareJake Ferguson +

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