Chris Godwin Jr. or Terrance Ferguson: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Ferguson's higher-value targets edge Godwin's route volume, with the ankle as the swing factor

Start Ferguson narrowly: his larger share of the targets and seam-and-red-zone profile give him more ways to turn limited routes into useful TE scoring, despite his TE2 role. Godwin's near-team-leading route workload is a real counter, but those routes have not translated into dependable targets; CBS noted he nearly led Tampa Bay in routes while drawing just three targets in Week 2 [CBS Sports 2026-09-20]. Ferguson's edge is fragile, though: he was a surprise limited participant with an ankle issue Wednesday, and further restriction could make Godwin's steadier route role the safer play [Yahoo Sports 2026-09-23].

What flips it: Ferguson's ankle limitation persists into game day.

Sources: CBS Sports · Sep 20, 2026 · Yahoo Sports · Sep 23, 2026

AI editor

Chris Godwin Jr.

Chris Godwin Jr.

WR42TBvs MIN

Projected Points

Toss-Up
Terrance Ferguson

Terrance Ferguson

TE22LARvs DEN

Projected Points

Toss-Up· low

Chris Godwin Jr.’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
+115 / -146
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 35.5
-109 / -115
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+340
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Terrance Ferguson’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
-160 / +125
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 50.5
-114 / -110
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+190
Anytime Touchdown Props →
MIN@
TBSun, Sep 27, 4:05 PM ETView the game →
LAR@
DENSun, Sep 27, 8:20 PM ETView the game →

Why Chris Godwin Jr.

Toss-Up

Starting WR with slot-to-boundary versatility. Physical route runner and YAC producer; recent seasons shortened by injury.

Toss-up — WR42 consensus, projects WR57 this week: MIN is the 10th-softest matchup vs WRs, 12% target share.

  • Near-team-leading routes give Godwin a path to outproduce Ferguson if the TE's ankle limits his part-time workload.
  • His slot-to-boundary versatility gives him routes across the formation, not just one narrow receiving role.

Latest on Godwin

Role

Through two games, Godwin has just seven catches for 86 scoreless yards, and in Week 2 his three targets were only a 8.8% share on 34 Mayfield attempts, though his 37 routes run were nearly tied with Egbuka for the team lead.

CBS Sports · Sep 20, 2026

Why Terrance Ferguson

Toss-Up· low

Second-year TE2 and athletic receiving option. Explosive seam threat with big-play efficiency and red-zone scoring value behind the starter.

18% target share and a 24.3 implied total make him streamable, but TE22 rank and a surprise ankle limitation temper the start-lean.

  • An 18% target share is meaningful concentration for a TE2, giving Ferguson an efficiency path despite fewer snaps.
  • His seam threat and red-zone value make his targets capable of producing more than routine short gains.

The call

  • Usage is real for a tight end: 18% target share on a 55% snap share through 2 games, and the offense carries a healthy 24.3 implied total as a 3-point favorite.
  • The 10.6 PPR projection is useful at a thin position, but consensus has him at TE22, outside the TE1 tier in a 12-team league, so he's a streamer rather than a locked starter.
  • DEN grades 8 of 32 against tight ends, a tougher-than-average draw. It rests on a 2-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so treat it as noise rather than a knock.
  • What tips it: Yahoo Sports (2026-09-23) reported he was a surprise limited participant with an ankle injury. He has no designation now. A full practice later in the week makes him a start. Any downgrade, or a TE1-range option on your bench, means sit.

Latest on Ferguson

Status

Terrance Ferguson was listed as a limited participant with an ankle injury and was a surprise addition to Wednesday's injury report.

Yahoo Sports · Sep 23, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricChris Godwin Jr.Terrance Ferguson
Projected points
Consensus rankWR42TE22
Opponent vs positionMIN · 23 of 322-game sampleDEN · 8 of 322-game sample
Receptions26 of 329 of 32
Receiving Yards27 of 3221 of 32
Receiving TDs15 of 321 of 32
Targets31 of 327 of 32
Anytime TD15 of 321 of 32
Target share12%18%
Reception share16%15%
Implied total · spread23.0-1.524.3-3.0
Depth chartWR2TE2
Snap share86%55%
Start/Sit record0–0+2 toss-ups0–0+1 toss-up

Recent form

Chris Godwin Jr. — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs CLE
Week 1vs CIN

Terrance Ferguson — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs NYG
Week 1vs SF

Signal breakdown

  • 8.8 vs 10.6 projected PPR pointsTerrance Ferguson +
  • Rank 42 vs 22Terrance Ferguson +
  • Opponent DvP rank 23 vs 8 (32 = softest)even
  • Implied 23.0 vs 24.3 team pointsTerrance Ferguson +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 86% vs 55% snap shareChris Godwin Jr. +

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