Brian Thomas Jr. or Terrance Ferguson: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Ferguson — the consensus rank and snap share edges are too wide to ignore.
Terrance Ferguson is the higher consensus play (TE22 to WR40) and plays a 55% snap share to Thomas's 42%. Thomas's edge is the matchup, 21 of 32 to 8. The gap is comfortable.
Brian Thomas Jr.
7.28.910.7 Projected Points
Terrance Ferguson
6.78.610.6 Projected Points
Brian Thomas Jr.’s market
Terrance Ferguson’s market
Why Brian Thomas Jr.
Toss-UpWR1 and primary vertical threat. Long-striding field-stretcher with contested-catch radius; bounce-back candidate after inefficient season.
Toss-up — WR40 consensus, projects WR44 this week: 16% target share, 10.7 PPR projected vs NE.
- NE ranks 21 of 32 against WRs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 23.5 team points as 1.5-point favorites.
- Listed WR-2 on the latest depth chart with a 42% snap share.
Latest on Thomas
Thomas practiced limited all Week 2 prep week with a shoulder injury suffered in the Week 1 win over Cleveland, but carried no injury designation into the Week 2 game at Denver after being listed with no status on Friday's final injury report.
Jaguars.com · Sep 18, 2026Why Terrance Ferguson
Toss-Up· lowSecond-year TE2 and athletic receiving option. Explosive seam threat with big-play efficiency and red-zone scoring value behind the starter.
18% target share and a 24.3 implied total support the start-lean, but TE22 rank, a stingy DEN matchup (8 of 32) and an ankle note cap the upside.
- DEN ranks 8 of 32 against TEs (one of the tougher matchups, 2-game sample).
- Vegas implies 24.3 team points as 3.0-point favorites.
- Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 55% snap share.
The call
- Usage is the case for him: an 18% target share on a 55% snap share is starter-caliber volume for a tight end, and the 10.6 PPR projection reflects that.
- Game environment helps. The Rams are 3-point favorites with a 24.3 implied total, so scoring chances should be there.
- Matchup cuts the other way. DEN ranks 8 of 32 vs TEs (32 = softest), though that rests on a 2-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so weight it lightly.
- Risk: Yahoo (2026-09-23) reported he was a surprise limited participant with an ankle injury. He carries no designation now, but at TE22 he sits outside the 12-team starter tier. Start him over a streamer outside the top 15; sit him for anyone ranked there or higher.
Latest on Ferguson
Terrance Ferguson is likely to miss Sunday's game after sustaining a medial ankle sprain.
Injury Updates: McVay says Terrance Ferguson (ankle) and Jaylen Watson (shoulder) likely out for Week 4 at Eagles; latest on Colby Parkinson (shoulder) and Puka Nacua (hip)therams.com · Sep 28, 2026Terrance Ferguson was listed as a limited participant with an ankle injury and was a surprise addition to Wednesday's injury report.
Yahoo Sports · Sep 23, 2026Odds, bets and analysis to help you bet Rams-Broncos on "Sunday Night Football."
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Brian Thomas Jr. | Terrance Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 7.28.910.7 | 6.78.610.6 |
| Consensus rank | WR40 | TE22 |
| Opponent vs position | NE · 21 of 323-game sample | DEN · 8 of 322-game sample |
| Receptions | 22 of 32 | 9 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 9 of 32 | 21 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | 25 of 32 | 1 of 32 |
| Targets | 22 of 32 | 7 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 25 of 32 | 1 of 32 |
| Target share | 16% | 18% |
| Reception share | 13% | 15% |
| Implied total · spread | 23.5-1.5 | 24.3-3.0 |
| Depth chart | WR2 | TE2 |
| Snap share | 42% | 55% |
| Start/Sit record | 0–1 | 0–0+1 toss-up |
Recent form
Brian Thomas Jr. — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs DEN | 4.05.57.0 |
| Week 1 | vs CLE | 4.05.57.0 |
Terrance Ferguson — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs NYG | 11.414.417.4 |
| Week 1 | vs SF | 0.00.00.0 |
Signal breakdown
- 10.7 vs 10.6 projected PPR pointsBrian Thomas Jr. +
- Rank 40 vs 22Terrance Ferguson +
- Opponent DvP rank 21 vs 8 (32 = softest)Brian Thomas Jr. +
- Implied 23.5 vs 24.3 team pointsTerrance Ferguson +
- No injury designationseven
- 42% vs 55% snap shareTerrance Ferguson +
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