Baker Mayfield or Dalton Schultz: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Mayfield’s broader QB workload gives him the edge over Schultz
Mayfield gets the nod because a starting QB with off-script mobility has more ways to create points than Schultz, even with Schultz’s concentrated target role. The raw projection gap overstates how safely it separates them: quarterback scoring can swing quickly, while Schultz’s chain-moving role and slightly better team outlook make him a credible START, not a sit. Mayfield’s broader workload is the deciding factor, but a quiet passing day could erase the edge.
What flips it: A renewed illness that limits Mayfield’s practice or availability.
Sources: buccaneers.com · Sep 23, 2026
AI editor
Baker Mayfield
15.615.615.6 Projected Points
Dalton Schultz
6.28.611.0 Projected Points
Baker Mayfield’s market
Dalton Schultz’s market
Why Baker Mayfield
Toss-Up· lowStarting QB and offensive engine. Gunslinger mentality with off-script mobility and improvisational playmaking.
QB20 at 15.6 projected points in a neutral MIN matchup (18 of 32) and a solid 23.0 implied total. Borderline QB2 who is streamable, not a lock.
- His improvisational mobility gives him another path to production if the passing game stalls.
- A late-week illness concern is worth monitoring even though he has no current designation.
The call
- His 15.6-point projection and QB20 consensus rank put him below the typical 12-team starting line. He's more a bye-week or streaming option than a set-and-forget QB1.
- The MIN matchup grades as neutral at 18 of 32, but it rests on a 2-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so it gives almost no signal either way.
- Game script is supportive: Tampa Bay is a 1.5-point favorite with a 23.0 implied total. Per buccaneers.com (2026-09-22), he added a nine-yard third-down scramble on a touchdown drive, which is a small rushing floor.
- Risk: an unverified headline says he's dealing with an illness but practiced in full Wednesday, and he carries no designation. Start him if your alternative ranks outside the top 20; sit him for any top-15 option.
Latest on Mayfield
Through the first two games, Mayfield attempted 15 passes in the intermediate range.
Baker Mayfield: Bucs Have to "Connect the Dots" on Intermediate Throwsbuccaneers.com · Sep 24, 2026Baker Mayfield had a nine-yard third-down scramble during Tampa Bay's 65-yard touchdown drive against Cleveland.
Baker Mayfield on the Vikings' Defense and More, and Taneka Bowles Hosts Philanthropic Fashion Experience | Bucs Blitzbuccaneers.com · Sep 22, 2026As three Buccaneers.com contributors continue their competition to see who can predict each upcoming game's standout Buccaneer, we get our first QB selection this week plus a pair of defenders who play the same position
Keep informed with our daily updates: News, notes and more throughout the month of September
Jenna Laine breaks down the final two minutes of the Bucs loss to the Cleveland Browns.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Dalton Schultz
Start· mediumTE1 in high-volume pass-catching role. Reliable chain-mover over the middle with sure hands.
25% target share over 2 games and 11.0 projected PPR points make Schultz a viable TE21 play in a 23.5-point implied total vs IND.
- Schultz’s over-the-middle role can turn his target concentration into dependable PPR catches.
- His early target share makes him a viable start even in a comparison he narrowly loses.
The call
- Usage is the driver: a 25% target share on a 67% snap share is strong volume for a tight end, and targets are what score in PPR.
- 11.0 projected PPR points at TE21 sits near the replacement line in 12-team leagues, but the target share gives him a steadier floor than most streamers in that range.
- The DvP composite of 23 of 32 leans soft, but it rests on a 2-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so don't lean on it. Game script is neutral: a 23.5 implied total and a -1.5 spread.
- Risk: the ESPN headline about Field Yates being hesitant is unverified and gives no specifics. Schultz has no injury designation, so it doesn't override the model's start-lean.
Latest on Schultz
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Baker Mayfield | Dalton Schultz |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 15.615.615.6 | 6.28.611.0 |
| Consensus rank | QB20 | TE21 |
| Opponent vs position | MIN · 18 of 322-game sample | IND · 23 of 322-game sample |
| Passing Yards | 29 of 32 | — |
| Passing TDs | 6 of 32 | — |
| Passing Completions | 19 of 32 | — |
| Passing Attempts | 29 of 32 | — |
| Interceptions | 5 of 32 | — |
| Receptions | — | 29 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | — | 29 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | — | 15 of 32 |
| Targets | — | 29 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | — | 13 of 32 |
| Target share | — | 25% |
| Reception share | — | 29% |
| Implied total · spread | 23.0-1.5 | 23.5-1.5 |
| Depth chart | QB1 | TE1 |
| Snap share | 100% | 67% |
| Start/Sit record | 0–0+3 toss-ups | — |
Recent form
Baker Mayfield — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs CLE | 12.212.212.2 |
| Week 1 | vs CIN | 11.611.611.6 |
Dalton Schultz — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs CIN | 14.020.026.0 |
| Week 1 | vs BUF | 3.55.57.5 |
Signal breakdown
- 15.6 vs 11.0 projected PPR pointsBaker Mayfield +
- Rank 20 vs 21Baker Mayfield +
- Opponent DvP rank 18 vs 23 (32 = softest)even
- Implied 23.0 vs 23.5 team pointsDalton Schultz +
- No injury designationseven
- 100% vs 67% snap shareBaker Mayfield +
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