Alvin Kamara or Michael Wilson: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Wilson — the consensus rank and snap share edges are too wide to ignore.
Michael Wilson is the higher consensus play (WR37 to RB48) and plays a 91% snap share to Kamara's 31%. Kamara's edge is the game script, 23.0 implied points to 17.5. The gap is comfortable.
Alvin Kamara
7.68.69.6 Projected Points
Michael Wilson
6.69.011.3 Projected Points
Alvin Kamara’s market
Michael Wilson’s market
Why Alvin Kamara
SitVeteran RB2 in complementary role. Elite receiving back with elusive short-area footwork, now sharing the backfield.
Sit — bench-tier RB at consensus RB48: LV is the 11th-toughest matchup vs RBs, 9% target share.
- LV ranks 11 of 32 against RBs (one of the tougher matchups, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 23.0 team points as 3.5-point favorites.
- Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 31% snap share.
Latest on Kamara
In Week 2, Kamara led the Saints backfield with a 33% rush share and 18% target share, tripling Etienne's workload in his first game back from injury.
CBS Sports · Sep 23, 2026Saints running back Alvin Kamara has "no limitations," was a full participant in practice and says his knee feels good only one month after spraining his MCL in practice.
The team's all-time leader in rushing yards beat the projected recovery timeline and will play on Sunday
Katherine Terrell discusses the injury statuses of running back Alvin Kamara and defensive lineman Cam Jordan.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Michael Wilson
Toss-UpWR2 and big-bodied outside target. Physical at the catch point with 1,000-yard breakout production and full-season availability.
Toss-up — WR37 consensus, projects WR34 this week: SF is the 11th-toughest matchup vs WRs, 17.5 implied team total caps the ceiling.
- SF ranks 11 of 32 against WRs (one of the tougher matchups, 3-game sample).
- Vegas implies 17.5 team points as 11.5-point underdogs.
- Listed WR on the latest depth chart with a 91% snap share.
Latest on Wilson
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Alvin Kamara | Michael Wilson |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 7.68.69.6 | 6.69.011.3 |
| Consensus rank | RB48 | WR37 |
| Opponent vs position | LV · 11 of 323-game sample | SF · 11 of 323-game sample |
| Rushing Yards | 14 of 32 | — |
| Rushing TDs | 8 of 32 | — |
| Rushing Attempts | 16 of 32 | — |
| Receptions | 9 of 32 | 15 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 13 of 32 | 11 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 6 of 32 | 6 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | — | 7 of 32 |
| Targets | — | 15 of 32 |
| Target share | 9% | 27% |
| Reception share | 10% | 22% |
| Implied total · spread | 23.0-3.5 | 17.5+11.5 |
| Depth chart | RB2 | WR1 |
| Snap share | 31% | 91% |
Recent form
Alvin Kamara — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs BAL | 2.24.77.2 |
| Week 1 | vs DET | 0.00.00.0 |
Michael Wilson — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs SEA | 1.82.83.8 |
| Week 1 | vs LAC | 5.68.110.6 |
Signal breakdown
- 9.6 vs 11.3 projected PPR pointsMichael Wilson +
- Rank 48 vs 37Michael Wilson +
- Opponent DvP rank 11 vs 11 (32 = softest)Alvin Kamara +
- Implied 23.0 vs 17.5 team pointsAlvin Kamara +
- No injury designationseven
- 31% vs 91% snap shareMichael Wilson +
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