AJ Barner or Jalen McMillan: Who Should You Start?
Preliminary board2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Verdicts sharpen as practice reports land.
Barner has the steadier role, but this remains a bench-tier matchup
Barner gets the nod because his TE1 role and 84% workload offer a sturdier path to usable snaps than McMillan’s WR-3 assignment; Seattle’s 25-point total also gives his red-zone profile more room to matter. The 0.7-point projection edge is noise, and Barner’s 6% target share is the real danger, so this is a preference rather than a comfortable start. McMillan has greater vertical upside, but his managed return and fourth-option status make his thin weekly floor especially fragile (CBS Sports 2026-09-20; SI.com (Buccaneers on SI) 2026-09-20).
What flips it: A confirmed full-time role for McMillan before kickoff.
Sources: CBS Sports · Sep 20, 2026 · SI.com (Buccaneers on SI) · Sep 20, 2026
AI editor
AJ Barner
4.15.36.5 Projected Points
Jalen McMillan
3.84.85.8 Projected Points
AJ Barner’s market
Jalen McMillan’s market
Why AJ Barner
SitTE1 with dual-role value. Willing blocker who emerged as a red-zone target with six TDs on 52 catches.
Sit — bench-tier TE at consensus TE25: 25.0 implied team total, 6% target share.
- Barner’s blocking-plus-red-zone role can survive a modest target count; that is the key edge over a fragile WR-3 profile.
- Seattle’s stronger scoring environment gives Barner more paths to a touchdown than his target share alone suggests.
Why Jalen McMillan
SitWR3 with vertical speed and red-zone knack. Injuries limited 2025 sample; upside as third option.
Sit — bench-tier WR at consensus WR57: MIN is the 10th-softest matchup vs WRs, 12% target share in 2025.
- McMillan’s speed and red-zone knack create spike-week appeal if his route load expands.
- The softer-looking WR matchup matters only if Tampa restores him to a full-time role.
Latest on McMillan
With McMillan operating on a snap count in his Week 2 return, rookie Ted Hurst III was expected to absorb more third-receiver duties, effectively making McMillan the fourth passing option behind Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin and Hurst.
CBS Sports · Sep 20, 2026McMillan was active and made his 2026 season debut in Week 2 against Cleveland after missing Week 1 with a knee injury, but per ESPN's Adam Schefter he was on a managed snap count rather than a full-time role.
SI.com (Buccaneers on SI) · Sep 20, 2026On Thursday, Larry Foote discussed the defensive line’s mentality entering Week Two after falling short of expectations in the season opener, Zac Robinson dished on Jalen McMillan’s separation skills and Tristan Wirfs chatted on his matchup with Jared Verse
Keep informed with our daily updates: News, notes and more throughout the month of September
Jalen McMillan has progressed towards a return with full participation in practice this week and Emeka Egbuka spoke on the dynamic ability he brings to the offense
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | AJ Barner | Jalen McMillan |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 4.15.36.5 | 3.84.85.8 |
| Consensus rank | TE25 | WR57 |
| Opponent vs position | WSH · 20 of 322-game sample | MIN · 23 of 322-game sample |
| Receptions | 9 of 32 | 27 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 25 of 32 | 28 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | 31 of 32 | 15 of 32 |
| Targets | 3 of 32 | 32 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 31 of 32 | 15 of 32 |
| Target share | 6% | 12%(2025) |
| Reception share | 8% | 15%(2025) |
| Implied total · spread | 25.0-3.5 | 23.0-1.5 |
| Depth chart | TE1 | WR3 |
| Snap share | 84% | 52%(2025) |
Recent form
AJ Barner — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs ARI | 6.97.47.9 |
| Week 1 | vs NE | 1.32.33.3 |
Jalen McMillan — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs CLE | 0.00.00.0 |
| Week 1 | vs CIN | 0.00.00.0 |
Signal breakdown
- 6.5 vs 5.8 projected PPR pointsAJ Barner +
- Rank 25 vs 57AJ Barner +
- Opponent DvP rank 20 vs 23 (32 = softest)even
- Implied 25.0 vs 23.0 team pointsAJ Barner +
- No injury designationseven
- 84% vs 52% snap shareAJ Barner +
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