Aaron Jones Sr. or Xavier Worthy: Who Should You Start?

The call

• A 14.3-point consensus projection is comfortably above replacement in 12-team PPR, even with the RB35 positional tag lagging behind the number — that gap says the volume is trending up, and ESPN's Week 2 note on a growing role backs it.
• Role is the swing factor: he's the listed RB with only a 46% snap share on a one-game sample, so a true workhorse week is not locked in. Any push toward 60%-plus snaps makes this an easy start.
• The 4% target share is the PPR drag — this is a carries-and-touchdowns profile right now, not a floor built on receptions.
• Matchup and script are neutral: Chicago sits 18 of 32 in DvP composite (no sample confidence yet) and a 21.0 implied total with a 3.5 spread keeps the game close enough to avoid an abandoned run game.

The call

• Role is real: 77% snap share and a 24% target share as the WR-2 means he's on the field for nearly every meaningful KC pass rep with no injury designation.
• Game environment works — a 27.0 implied team total and a 6.5-point favorite tag points to an efficient, volume-friendly offense rather than a run-out-the-clock grind.
• Matchup is neutral at best (Indianapolis rates 14 of 32 vs the position on a 1-game sample, confidence 0.00), so this call rides on usage, not defensive softness.
• The WR49 consensus rank is the risk flag: 11.1 projected points is flex-tier, so he's a starter in 12-team PPR only if your alternative is a true replacement-level body.