Aaron Jones Sr. or Tyler Warren: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Warren for the stronger weekly role; Jones remains a viable flex
Jones' projection edge is only 1.3 points, a thin cushion for a back with little receiving involvement; Warren's TE4 standing reflects a more concentrated weekly role. Warren's every-down presence and high-volume receiving work give him a sturdier PPR path than Jones' lead-back role, which is more valuable between the tackles. Jones still has a case as Minnesota's lead runner, and his listed matchup is slightly softer. The risk for Warren is that his target role is based on only two games, while Houston's listed DvP grade is tougher, though that sample carries zero confidence.
What flips it: Warren's target share or snap role drops materially.
AI editor
In standard scoring this is a coin flip.
Aaron Jones Sr.
11.912.813.6 Projected Points
Tyler Warren
7.610.012.3 Projected Points
Aaron Jones Sr.’s market
Tyler Warren’s market
Why Aaron Jones Sr.
Start· mediumRB1 and veteran lead back. Balanced runner with reliable receiving chops, though workload now shared.
64% snap share as Minnesota's lead back and a 13.7-point projection outrun his RB35 label — flex him despite a 2% target share.
- Jones' lead-back role gives him a route to useful rushing volume in a game projected to stay close.
- His balanced running profile supports a flex case, but limited receiving involvement caps his PPR upside.
The call
- Role is the case: a 64% snap share in the RB slot means Jones is the engine of this backfield, and his 13.7 projected PPR points sit well above what the RB35 consensus tag implies.
- Matchup is neutral, not scary — Tampa Bay grades 14 of 32 in the DvP composite (on a thin 2-game, 0.00-confidence sample), so there's no reason to fade him on defense quality.
- Game script cooperates: a 1.5-point spread and a 21.5 implied total point to a close game where Minnesota keeps handing it off rather than abandoning the run.
- Risk is the 2% target share — he's a volume-and-touchdown play with almost no PPR safety net if the carries dry up.
Latest on Jones
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Tyler Warren
StartTE1 and high-volume mismatch receiver. Move-piece with contested-catch strength and gadget rushing usage.
Start — every-week TE start at consensus TE4: HOU is the 9th-toughest matchup vs TEs, 20% target share.
- Warren's move-piece usage adds gadget rushing possibilities beyond a conventional tight end role.
- His mismatch-receiver profile gives you a compelling reason to trust his workload despite the tougher listed matchup.
Latest on Warren
Odds, bets and analysis to help you bet Colts-Chiefs on "Sunday Night Football."
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Aaron Jones Sr. | Tyler Warren |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 11.912.813.6 | 7.610.012.3 |
| Consensus rank | RB35 | TE4 |
| Opponent vs position | TB · 14 of 322-game sample | HOU · 9 of 322-game sample |
| Rushing Yards | 2 of 32 | — |
| Rushing TDs | 10 of 32 | — |
| Rushing Attempts | 5 of 32 | — |
| Receptions | 31 of 32 | 9 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 25 of 32 | 28 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 8 of 32 | 1 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | — | 1 of 32 |
| Targets | — | 7 of 32 |
| Target share | 2% | 20% |
| Reception share | 0% | 22% |
| Implied total · spread | 21.5+1.5 | 22.0+1.5 |
| Depth chart | RB1 | TE1 |
| Snap share | 64% | 91% |
| Start/Sit record | 0–0+2 toss-ups | — |
Recent form
Aaron Jones Sr. — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs CHI | 10.510.510.5 |
| Week 1 | vs GB | 10.010.010.0 |
Tyler Warren — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs KC | 8.411.414.4 |
| Week 1 | vs BAL | 7.38.810.3 |
Signal breakdown
- 13.6 vs 12.3 projected PPR pointsAaron Jones Sr. +
- Rank 35 vs 4Tyler Warren +
- Opponent DvP rank 14 vs 9 (32 = softest)even
- Implied 21.5 vs 22.0 team pointsTyler Warren +
- No injury designationseven
- 64% vs 91% snap shareTyler Warren +
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