Start Tony Pollard over Mike Washington Jr. — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Pollard — the projection and consensus rank edges are too wide to ignore.

Tony Pollard projects 11.5 to Washington's 7.1 and is the higher consensus play (RB28 to RB43). Washington's edge is the game script, 22.3 implied points to 21.3. The gap is wide.

Mike Washington Jr.

RB43LVvs MIA

6.06.67.1 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Tony Pollard

RB28TENvs NYJ

9.810.711.5 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Why Mike Washington Jr.

Toss-Up

Rookie RB2 in change-of-pace role. Complementary back behind the feature runner with no NFL sample yet.

Toss-up — RB43 consensus, projects RB45 this week: 7.1 PPR projected vs MIA.

Vegas implies 22.3 team points as 3.0-point favorites.
Listed RB on the latest depth chart.

Latest on Washington

Role

With Ashton Jeanty working back from injury, Mike Washington Jr. is being counted on heavily at running back until Jeanty returns.

SI.com (Raiders on SI) · Sep 5, 2026

Role

Kubiak said Ashton Jeanty is "still on the mend" from his ankle injury, and rookie Mike Washington Jr. is expected to see a substantial role if Jeanty cannot play, after Washington ran 23 times for 168 yards (7.3 YPC) in the preseason.

NBC Sports · Aug 28, 2026

Why Tony Pollard

Toss-Up· medium

RB1 and lead back. One-cut zone runner with breakaway speed and 1,000-yard workload.

63% snap share and a -3.0 spread give Pollard a real floor, but RB29 with an 8% target share and a 21.3 implied total caps the ceiling.

Vegas implies 21.3 team points as 3.0-point favorites.
Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 63% snap share in 2025.

The call

Role is secure — 63% snap share as the listed RB with no injury designation means he'll get the early-down and closing work if this stays a one-score game.
Being a 3-point favorite is the friendliest game-script signal on the sheet; a lead funnels carries his way in the fourth quarter.
The PPR floor is thin: an 8% target share means he needs volume and a score to clear his 11.5 projection, and a 21.3 implied total isn't a high-scoring environment.
The DvP composite of 25 of 32 is drawn from a 0-game sample at 0.00 confidence, so there's no usable matchup edge to break the tie — a bigger-upside flex option should get the nod over him.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Mike Washington Jr.	Tony Pollard
Projected points	6.06.67.1	9.810.711.5
Consensus rank	RB43	RB28
Opponent vs position	MIAno ranking yet	NYJno ranking yet
Target share	—	8%(2025)
Reception share	—	10%(2025)
Implied total · spread	22.3-3.0	21.3-3.0
Depth chart	RB2	RB1
Snap share	—	63%(2025)
Start/Sit record	—	0–0+1 toss-up