Michael Mayer or Terrance Ferguson: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Too close to call — the edges cancel out.
Michael Mayer and Terrance Ferguson grade out even this week. Mayer's best edge is the projection (9.3 to 8.1), Ferguson's best edge is the game script (25.8 implied points to 22.3) — and they cancel out. Start whichever player's game you trust more this week.
Michael Mayer
5.47.39.3 Projected Points
Terrance Ferguson
5.36.78.1 Projected Points
Why Michael Mayer
Toss-Up· mediumTE2 in complementary role. Physical in-line blocker with reliable short-to-intermediate hands behind the starter.
9.3 projected points is fringe TE1 territory, but a 62% snap share and 13% target share make him a volume gamble, not a plug-in play.
- Vegas implies 22.3 team points as 3.0-point favorites.
- Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 62% snap share in 2025.
The call
- Role is real but not locked down: 62% of snaps over 13 games with a 13% target share means he's a secondary option, so his floor depends on red-zone looks rather than steady volume.
- The 9.3 PPR projection clears typical replacement-level TE production, which is why the ESPN buzz (Sept 10) about adding him has traction — it's playable, not exciting.
- Game script is neutral-to-mildly-positive: a 22.3 implied total as a 3-point favorite suggests a balanced attack rather than the pass-heavy chase mode that lifts low-target tight ends.
- Tip it to start if you're streaming from the TE waiver pile or need touchdown equity; sit him if you have a TE with a 20%-plus target share available.
Latest on Mayer
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Terrance Ferguson
Toss-UpToss-up — TE22 by consensus and projection: SF is the 2nd-toughest matchup vs TEs, 25.8 implied team total.
- SF ranks 2 of 32 against TEs (one of the tougher matchups, 0-game sample).
- Vegas implies 25.8 team points as 3.0-point favorites.
- Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 51% snap share.
Latest on Ferguson
Ferguson clearly out-snapped Higbee in the Week 1 13-personnel rotation, giving him a higher route participation rate than in most games last season, though the increased opportunities didn't yet translate into targets.
PFF · Sep 11, 2026Feeling more comfortable in the Rams' offense, second-year tight end Terrance Ferguson hoping to show more of what he's capable of in 2026.
Rams head coach Sean McVay addressed why Aaron Donald wasn't practicing Monday, as well as injury updates on Myles Garrett, Terrance Ferguson, Grant Stuard, Keagen Trost and Justin Dedich.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Michael Mayer | Terrance Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 5.47.39.3 | 5.36.78.1 |
| Consensus rank | — | TE22 |
| Opponent vs position | MIAno ranking yet | SF · 2 of 320-game sample |
| Receptions | — | 2 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | — | 3 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | — | 1 of 32 |
| Targets | — | 3 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | — | 1 of 32 |
| Target share | 13%(2025) | 4% |
| Reception share | 14%(2025) | 0% |
| Implied total · spread | 22.3-3.0 | 25.8-3.0 |
| Depth chart | TE2 | TE3 |
| Snap share | 62%(2025) | 51% |
| Start/Sit record | 0–0+1 toss-up | — |
Signal breakdown
- 9.3 vs 8.1 projected PPR pointsMichael Mayer +
- Consensus position rankeven
- Matchup (DvP composite)even
- Implied 22.3 vs 25.8 team pointsTerrance Ferguson +
- No injury designationseven
- 62% vs 51% snap shareMichael Mayer +
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