Start Mark Andrews over Rhamondre Stevenson — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Andrews gets the better scoring environment; Stevenson needs volume to overcome it

Mark Andrews is the better start because his TE11 standing and Baltimore's scoring environment outweigh a nearly identical raw projection. Stevenson has genuine lead-back appeal—ESPN 2026-09-06 says he would have been the clear-cut starter regardless of Henderson's status—but his lower-end RB31 ranking and New England's modest total leave less room for a ceiling game. The call is not comfortable: Stevenson actually projects slightly higher, while Andrews' 62% snap share leaves him dependent on efficiency and red-zone conversion rather than locked-in volume.

What flips it: An Andrews availability downgrade.

Sources: ESPN · Sep 6, 2026

AI editor

Mark Andrews

TE11BALvs IND

6.68.410.1 Projected Points

Start· medium

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB31NEvs SEA

8.09.210.5 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Why Mark Andrews

Start· medium

TE1 and red-zone mismatch. Veteran seam-stretcher with strong hands and quarterback rapport.

TE11 with a 17% target share in a 26.5-point implied offense — red-zone role and favorable game script make him a fine TE1 play.

His TE1/red-zone mismatch profile turns Baltimore's favorable script into touchdown equity, not just yardage.
Quarterback rapport helps offset a 62% snap share that is lighter than a full-time every-down role.

The call

A 17% target share on 62% of snaps is a genuine TE1 workload, and Andrews' value is concentrated near the goal line, where Baltimore's 26.5 implied total gives him multiple scoring looks.
Vegas has the Ravens as 3.5-point favorites with a healthy team total — the neutral-to-positive script keeps the offense balanced instead of pass-chasing away from the tight end.
The Colts grade 20 of 32 vs the position, a mild edge, but the 0-game sample means it shouldn't move the needle either way.
Risk is the usual Andrews boom-bust: 10.1 projected points is TE11 territory, so a touchdown-less afternoon leaves him near replacement level — you're starting him for the ceiling.

Why Rhamondre Stevenson

Toss-Up· medium

RB1 and lead back. Physical between-the-tackles runner with reliable receiving-game involvement.

59% snap share keeps a real floor, but RB31 value, a middling 12-of-32 matchup and a 20.5 implied total as 3.5-point dogs cap the ceiling.

Clear-cut starter status supports Stevenson if New England leans on him as an underdog.
Receiving-game involvement gives him a path to recover value if Seattle forces a catch-up script.

The call

Volume is there — 59% of snaps over 14 games in the lead RB slot — but only a 9% target share means he needs goal-line work to clear his 10.5-point projection.
Seattle grades 12 of 32 in the DvP composite, closer to the tough end, and New England's 20.5 implied total with a 3.5-point deficit points to a chase script that favors passing down backs.
RB31 consensus is flex territory, not a set-and-forget start: if TreVeyon Henderson's status opens up more of the backfield, Stevenson jumps to a clear start; if it's a committee, sit him for a back in a better game environment.

Latest on Stevenson

Role

Rhamondre Stevenson would have been the Patriots' clear-cut starter regardless of Henderson's status.

What will Patriots do if RB TreVeyon Henderson is out Week 1?ESPN · Sep 6, 2026

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Mark Andrews	Rhamondre Stevenson
Projected points	6.68.410.1	8.09.210.5
Consensus rank	TE11	RB31
Opponent vs position	IND · 20 of 320-game sample	SEA · 12 of 320-game sample
Receptions	25 of 32	32 of 32
Receiving Yards	31 of 32	27 of 32
Receiving TDs	9 of 32	—
Targets	24 of 32	—
Anytime TD	9 of 32	1 of 32
Rushing Yards	—	3 of 32
Rushing TDs	—	1 of 32
Rushing Attempts	—	9 of 32
Target share	17%(2025)	9%(2025)
Reception share	17%(2025)	11%(2025)
Implied total · spread	26.5-3.5	20.5+3.5
Depth chart	TE1	RB1
Snap share	62%(2025)	59%(2025)
Start/Sit record	—	0–0+1 toss-up