Start Mark Andrews over Kyle Monangai — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Andrews: his established role makes the nearly even projection safer

Mark Andrews is the better start because his established TE1 role makes an almost identical projection more trustworthy. His red-zone mismatch profile, strong quarterback rapport and Baltimore's higher scoring expectation give him a sturdier path to usable volume. Monangai has the slight projection edge and a downhill rushing profile, but Sports Illustrated (SI.com) 2026-08-31 lists him as Chicago's No. 2 back, while his questionable status adds uncertainty. The risk with Andrews is a quieter passing day; Monangai's upside depends on a touchdown or a late workload change.

What flips it: A late report that Monangai will lead Chicago's backfield.

Sources: Sports Illustrated (SI.com) · Aug 31, 2026

AI editor

Kyle Monangai

RB35CHIvs CAR

8.79.510.3 Projected Points

Sit

Mark Andrews

TE11BALvs IND

6.68.410.1 Projected Points

Start· medium

Why Kyle Monangai

Sit

RB2 and complementary early-down back. Compact, decisive downhill runner with productive rookie-year workload.

Sit — RB35 consensus, projects RB34 this week: 6% target share in 2025, Questionable on the latest report.

His small projection edge reflects real rushing upside, especially if Chicago's backfield hierarchy changes.
A favorable script as a home favorite supports his early-down style, but the current role limits confidence.

Latest on Monangai

Role

Kyle Monangai enters Week 1 listed as the No. 2 running back behind D'Andre Swift on Chicago's post-cuts depth chart, rather than as the lead back.

Sports Illustrated (SI.com), Sports Illustrated · Aug 31, 2026

Why Mark Andrews

Start· medium

TE1 and red-zone mismatch. Veteran seam-stretcher with strong hands and quarterback rapport.

TE11 with a 17% target share in a 26.5-point implied offense — red-zone role and favorable game script make him a fine TE1 play.

Andrews' red-zone mismatch role gives his targets more scoring value than a similar projection from a complementary back.
His higher route and snap involvement creates a steadier floor, making the narrow projection gap less meaningful at tight end.

The call

A 17% target share on 62% of snaps is a genuine TE1 workload, and Andrews' value is concentrated near the goal line, where Baltimore's 26.5 implied total gives him multiple scoring looks.
Vegas has the Ravens as 3.5-point favorites with a healthy team total — the neutral-to-positive script keeps the offense balanced instead of pass-chasing away from the tight end.
The Colts grade 20 of 32 vs the position, a mild edge, but the 0-game sample means it shouldn't move the needle either way.
Risk is the usual Andrews boom-bust: 10.1 projected points is TE11 territory, so a touchdown-less afternoon leaves him near replacement level — you're starting him for the ceiling.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Kyle Monangai	Mark Andrews
Projected points	8.79.510.3	6.68.410.1
Consensus rank	RB35	TE11
Opponent vs position	CAR · 21 of 320-game sample	IND · 20 of 320-game sample
Rushing Yards	25 of 32	—
Rushing TDs	24 of 32	—
Rushing Attempts	25 of 32	—
Receptions	17 of 32	25 of 32
Receiving Yards	13 of 32	31 of 32
Anytime TD	23 of 32	9 of 32
Receiving TDs	—	9 of 32
Targets	—	24 of 32
Target share	6%(2025)	17%(2025)
Reception share	5%(2025)	17%(2025)
Implied total · spread	23.5-2.5	26.5-3.5
Depth chart	RB2	TE1
Snap share	41%(2025)	62%(2025)
Injury designation	Questionable	—