Kenny Gainwell or Terrance Ferguson: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Ferguson wins the comparison, but neither is a confident start
Ferguson is the better choice if you have to pick, but the tiny projection gap offers no real cushion; both remain sits by the board verdict. His stronger target involvement gives him a clearer route to TE production than Gainwell currently has, whose pass-catching profile has yet to show up in Tampa Bay: CBS Sports 2026-09-20 reports Bucky Irving has led the backfield workload through two games. Neither gets a matchup lift, and the short DvP samples carry no confidence. Ferguson’s risk is a limited role against a tough TE matchup, leaving little margin if the Rams don’t turn their scoring chances into points.
What flips it: Gainwell regains meaningful passing-down work, reversing the workload shift CBS Sports 2026-09-20 describes.
Sources: CBS Sports · Sep 20, 2026
AI editor
Kenny Gainwell
5.36.47.6 Projected Points
Terrance Ferguson
5.06.47.9 Projected Points
Kenny Gainwell’s market
Terrance Ferguson’s market
Why Kenny Gainwell
SitRB2 and primary kick returner. Change-of-pace back with heavy passing-down usage and receiving production out of the backfield.
Sit — RB30 consensus, projects RB44 this week: MIN is the 9th-toughest matchup vs RBs, 8% target share.
- Gainwell’s receiving skill could matter in PPR if Tampa Bay restores the change-of-pace role described in his bio.
- The close spread leaves room for a competitive game script and more chances for his backfield involvement.
Latest on Gainwell
Gainwell managed only two carries for 10 yards and three catches for five yards on four targets in Week 2, a far cry from his prior pass-catching role in Pittsburgh; Bucky Irving out-carried him 17-to-2 and out-targeted him 11-to-5 through two games.
CBS Sports · Sep 20, 2026Gabriel Kahaian joins Brianna Dix and Scott Smith this season in their weekly competition of predicting who the Bucs' brightest star will prove to be in the upcoming game, and two of three picks are players new to the roster in 2026
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Terrance Ferguson
SitSit — bench-tier TE at consensus TE22: DEN is the 8th-toughest matchup vs TEs, 24.3 implied team total.
- Ferguson’s target involvement gives him the more dependable path to opportunity in this comparison.
- The Rams’ scoring outlook offers touchdown potential, even though Denver makes that a harder route.
Latest on Ferguson
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Kenny Gainwell | Terrance Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 5.36.47.6 | 5.06.47.9 |
| Consensus rank | RB30 | TE22 |
| Opponent vs position | MIN · 9 of 322-game sample | DEN · 8 of 322-game sample |
| Rushing Yards | 13 of 32 | — |
| Rushing TDs | 1 of 32 | — |
| Rushing Attempts | 18 of 32 | — |
| Receptions | 6 of 32 | 9 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 17 of 32 | 20 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 1 of 32 | 1 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | — | 1 of 32 |
| Targets | — | 7 of 32 |
| Target share | 8% | 18% |
| Reception share | 9% | 15% |
| Implied total · spread | 23.0-1.5 | 24.3-3.0 |
| Depth chart | RB2 | TE2 |
| Snap share | 41% | 55% |
| Start/Sit record | 0–0+1 toss-up | — |
Recent form
Kenny Gainwell — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs CLE | 1.53.04.5 |
| Week 1 | vs CIN | 1.82.32.8 |
Terrance Ferguson — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs NYG | 11.414.417.4 |
| Week 1 | vs SF | 0.00.00.0 |
Signal breakdown
- 7.6 vs 7.9 projected PPR pointsTerrance Ferguson +
- Rank 30 vs 22Terrance Ferguson +
- Opponent DvP rank 9 vs 8 (32 = softest)even
- Implied 23.0 vs 24.3 team pointsTerrance Ferguson +
- No injury designationseven
- 41% vs 55% snap shareTerrance Ferguson +
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