Juwan Johnson or Terrance Ferguson: Who Should You Start?
Preliminary board2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Verdicts sharpen as practice reports land.
Start Johnson — the consensus rank and projection edges are too wide to ignore.
Juwan Johnson is the higher consensus play (TE16 to TE22) and projects 9.2 to Ferguson's 7.9. Ferguson's edge is the game script, 24.3 implied points to 23.0. The gap is comfortable.
Juwan Johnson
TE16NOvs LV
5.67.49.2 Projected Points
Toss-Up· medium
Terrance Ferguson
TE22LARvs DEN
5.06.47.9 Projected Points
Sit
Juwan Johnson’s market
Terrance Ferguson’s market
Why Juwan Johnson
Toss-Up· mediumTE1 and high-volume pass-catcher. Big-bodied converted receiver who is a red-zone and intermediate mismatch.
TE16 with a locked 69% snap role, but a 13% target share and a top-11 tough DvP matchup keep him on the streamer bubble.
- LV ranks 11 of 32 against TEs (one of the tougher matchups, 2-game sample).
- Vegas implies 23.0 team points as 3.5-point favorites.
- Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 69% snap share.
The call
- Role is secure — 69% snap share as the No. 1 TE and no injury designation after the Week 2 illness cleared, so volume isn't in question.
- The 13% target share is modest for a position that lives on volume, and the 9.2-point projection lands him at TE16, just outside the 12-team starter line.
- Game script is fine: 23.0 implied total as a 3.5-point favorite means a normal, competitive script rather than a pass-heavy comeback or a run-out-the-clock blowout.
- The DvP composite ranks this defense 11 of 32 against tight ends, but it's a 2-game sample at 0.00 confidence — if the target share ticks up toward 18-20%, he's a clear start; as is, he's a coin flip against a similar TE2.
Latest on Johnson
Status
Johnson practiced in full for the first time that week ahead of Week 2 after dealing with an illness and carried no injury designation.
Yahoo Sports/Heavy · Sep 18, 2026VideoESPN · Sep 13, 2026
VideoESPN · Sep 10, 2026
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Terrance Ferguson
SitSit — bench-tier TE at consensus TE22: DEN is the 8th-toughest matchup vs TEs, 24.3 implied team total.
- DEN ranks 8 of 32 against TEs (one of the tougher matchups, 2-game sample).
- Vegas implies 24.3 team points as 3.0-point favorites.
- Listed TE on the latest depth chart with a 55% snap share.
Latest on Ferguson
VideoESPN · Sep 22, 2026
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Juwan Johnson | Terrance Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 5.67.49.2 | 5.06.47.9 |
| Consensus rank | TE16 | TE22 |
| Opponent vs position | LV · 11 of 322-game sample | DEN · 8 of 322-game sample |
| Receptions | 9 of 32 | 9 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 7 of 32 | 20 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | 15 of 32 | 1 of 32 |
| Targets | 11 of 32 | 7 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 13 of 32 | 1 of 32 |
| Target share | 13% | 18% |
| Reception share | 11% | 15% |
| Implied total · spread | 23.0-3.5 | 24.3-3.0 |
| Depth chart | TE1 | TE2 |
| Snap share | 69% | 55% |
| Start/Sit record | 0–0+3 toss-ups | — |
Recent form
Juwan Johnson — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs BAL | 6.68.610.6 |
| Week 1 | vs DET | 11.412.914.4 |
Terrance Ferguson — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs NYG | 11.414.417.4 |
| Week 1 | vs SF | 0.00.00.0 |
Signal breakdown
- 9.2 vs 7.9 projected PPR pointsJuwan Johnson +
- Rank 16 vs 22Juwan Johnson +
- Opponent DvP rank 11 vs 8 (32 = softest)even
- Implied 23.0 vs 24.3 team pointsTerrance Ferguson +
- No injury designationseven
- 69% vs 55% snap shareJuwan Johnson +
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