Justice Hill or Makai Lemon: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Hill’s scoring environment meets Lemon’s broader route footprint
Hill has the better team scoring setup, but his change-of-pace role and limited receiving share make that environment less bankable than it looks. Lemon is on the field more and has a slightly stronger projection, yet his WR3 role in a lower-scoring offense caps the edge; neither player has enough established target volume to separate. The matchup ranks add little here because both are based on just two games with no confidence, so this comes down to touchdown access versus playing time. Hill’s risk is needing a score; Lemon’s is that his snaps don’t turn into meaningful targets.
What flips it: A substantial increase in Lemon’s target role.
AI editor

Justice Hill
4.75.76.7 Projected Points

Makai Lemon
4.96.17.3 Projected Points
Justice Hill’s market
Makai Lemon’s market
Why Justice Hill
SitChange-of-pace RB2 and passing-down back. Receiving chops and pass protection in third-down packages.
Sit — bench-tier RB at consensus RB51: 27.0 implied team total, 6% target share.
- The 27-point team outlook gives Hill more access to scoring chances, especially if Baltimore’s offense reaches the goal line.
- His passing-down role offers a route to useful PPR work if the game script calls for it.
Why Makai Lemon
Toss-UpRookie WR3 in slot-heavy role. Quick separator with reliable hands and yards-after-catch juice.
Toss-up — WR50 consensus, projects WR66 this week: 9% target share, 7.3 PPR projected vs CHI.
- Lemon’s larger snap footprint gives him more chances to earn routes than a typical reserve receiver.
- His quick separation and yards-after-catch ability can make limited targets count, though the WR3 role keeps his ceiling contained.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Justice Hill | Makai Lemon |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 4.75.76.7 | 4.96.17.3 |
| Consensus rank | RB51 | WR50 |
| Opponent vs position | DAL · 20 of 322-game sample | CHI · 13 of 322-game sample |
| Rushing Yards | 27 of 32 | — |
| Rushing TDs | 10 of 32 | — |
| Rushing Attempts | 22 of 32 | — |
| Receptions | 24 of 32 | 6 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 20 of 32 | 18 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 18 of 32 | 15 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | — | 15 of 32 |
| Targets | — | 10 of 32 |
| Target share | 6% | 9% |
| Reception share | 8% | 10% |
| Implied total · spread | 27.0-2.5 | 22.5+1.5 |
| Depth chart | RB2 | WR3 |
| Snap share | 47% | 64% |
| Start/Sit record | — | 0–1 |
Recent form
Justice Hill — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs NO | 1.82.83.8 |
| Week 1 | vs IND | 2.83.33.8 |
Makai Lemon — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs TEN | 0.91.41.9 |
| Week 1 | vs WSH | -0.51.02.5 |
Signal breakdown
- 6.7 vs 7.3 projected PPR pointsMakai Lemon +
- Rank 51 vs 50Makai Lemon +
- Opponent DvP rank 20 vs 13 (32 = softest)even
- Implied 27.0 vs 22.5 team pointsJustice Hill +
- No injury designationseven
- 47% vs 64% snap shareMakai Lemon +
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