Josh Downs or Woody Marks: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Marks narrowly edges Downs as availability outweighs the receiver’s modest volume edge
Downs has the better passing-game environment and a slightly stronger weekly role, but his questionable tag is the clearest separator in a matchup the model otherwise sees as nearly level. Marks’ no-designation status matters because his committee role and limited receiving work already make his ceiling modest; at least his workload is secure enough to avoid an added pregame variable. Downs remains the more appealing option if active, but Marks is the safer call across formats because the availability gap outweighs Downs’ volume and team-total advantages.
What flips it: Downs being cleared well before kickoff.
AI editor

Josh Downs
5.07.19.1 Projected Points

Woody Marks
6.87.58.3 Projected Points
Why Josh Downs
Toss-UpWR2 working primarily from the slot. Twitchy separator with reliable chain-moving production.
Toss-up — WR49 consensus, projects WR53 this week: BAL is the 9th-softest matchup vs WRs, 18% target share in 2025.
- Downs’ slot work can create efficient chain-moving targets, giving him a useful PPR path if cleared.
- His 18% target share and WR2 role offer more weekly involvement than Marks’ light pass-game usage.
Why Woody Marks
Toss-UpRB2 behind David Montgomery. Between-the-tackles committee back who carried 196 times for 703 yards as a rookie with light pass-game usage.
Toss-up — RB44 consensus, projects RB42 this week: 7% target share in 2025, 8.3 PPR projected vs BUF.
- Marks’ between-the-tackles role fits a controlled HOU script, even without a reliable receiving ceiling.
- No injury designation removes the biggest uncertainty in a matchup where neither defense clearly separates the choices.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Josh Downs | Woody Marks |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 5.07.19.1 | 6.87.58.3 |
| Consensus rank | WR49 | RB44 |
| Opponent vs position | BAL · 24 of 320-game sample | BUF · 20 of 320-game sample |
| Receptions | 31 of 32 | 10 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 30 of 32 | 6 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | 14 of 32 | — |
| Targets | 31 of 32 | — |
| Anytime TD | 13 of 32 | 26 of 32 |
| Rushing Yards | — | 27 of 32 |
| Rushing TDs | — | 32 of 32 |
| Rushing Attempts | — | 16 of 32 |
| Target share | 18%(2025) | 7%(2025) |
| Reception share | 17%(2025) | 7%(2025) |
| Implied total · spread | 23.0+3.5 | 22.0+1.5 |
| Depth chart | WR2 | RB2 |
| Snap share | 59%(2025) | 52%(2025) |
| Injury designation | Questionable | — |
Signal breakdown
- 9.1 vs 8.3 projected PPR pointsJosh Downs +
- Rank 49 vs 44Woody Marks +
- Opponent DvP rank 24 vs 20 (32 = softest)even
- Implied 23.0 vs 22.0 team pointsJosh Downs +
- Questionable vs no designationWoody Marks +
- 59% vs 52% snap shareJosh Downs +
Compare different players
Every fantasy-relevant player this week — search or filter by position.
More Downs comparisons
More Marks comparisons
This week’s toughest calls
- K. Walker IIIKenneth Walker IIIRBKCvs DEN
K. WilliamsKyren WilliamsRBLARvs SF
- K. WilliamsKyren WilliamsRBLARvs SF
C. SkatteboCam SkatteboRBNYGvs DAL
- C. SkatteboCam SkatteboRBNYGvs DAL
J. PriceJadarian PriceRBSEAvs NE
- J. PriceJadarian PriceRBSEAvs NE
D. MontgomeryDavid MontgomeryRBHOUvs BUF
- D. MontgomeryDavid MontgomeryRBHOUvs BUF
M. LloydMarShawn LloydRBGBvs MIN
- M. LloydMarShawn LloydRBGBvs MIN
R. StevensonRhamondre StevensonRBNEvs SEA
- J. WilliamsJameson WilliamsWRDETvs NO
D. MooreDJ MooreWRBUFvs HOU
- D. MooreDJ MooreWRBUFvs HOU
C. WatsonChristian WatsonWRGBvs MIN
- C. WatsonChristian WatsonWRGBvs MIN
P. WashingtonParker WashingtonWRJAXvs CLE
- P. WashingtonParker WashingtonWRJAXvs CLE
M. EvansMike EvansWRSFvs LAR
- M. EvansMike EvansWRSFvs LAR
M. GoldenMatthew GoldenWRGBvs MIN
- M. GoldenMatthew GoldenWRGBvs MIN
Q. JohnstonQuentin JohnstonWRLACvs ARI
- S. LaPortaSam LaPortaTEDETvs NO
K. Pitts Sr.Kyle Pitts Sr.TEATLvs PIT
- K. Pitts Sr.Kyle Pitts Sr.TEATLvs PIT
D. GoedertDallas GoedertTEPHIvs WSH
- D. GoedertDallas GoedertTEPHIvs WSH
M. AndrewsMark AndrewsTEBALvs IND
- M. AndrewsMark AndrewsTEBALvs IND
T. KelceTravis KelceTEKCvs DEN
- T. KelceTravis KelceTEKCvs DEN
J. FergusonJake FergusonTEDALvs NYG
- J. FergusonJake FergusonTEDALvs NYG
I. LikelyIsaiah LikelyTENYGvs DAL
- M. StaffordMatthew StaffordQBLARvs SF
J. DanielsJayden DanielsQBWSHvs PHI
- J. DanielsJayden DanielsQBWSHvs PHI
D. PrescottDak PrescottQBDALvs NYG
- D. PrescottDak PrescottQBDALvs NYG
T. LawrenceTrevor LawrenceQBJAXvs CLE
- T. LawrenceTrevor LawrenceQBJAXvs CLE
C. WilliamsCaleb WilliamsQBCHIvs CAR
- C. WilliamsCaleb WilliamsQBCHIvs CAR
D. MayeDrake MayeQBNEvs SEA
- D. MayeDrake MayeQBNEvs SEA
K. MurrayKyler MurrayQBMINvs GB
- C. DickerCameron DickerKLACvs ARI
E. PineiroEddy PineiroKSFvs LAR
- E. PineiroEddy PineiroKSFvs LAR
E. McPhersonEvan McPhersonKCINvs TB
- E. McPhersonEvan McPhersonKCINvs TB
T. LoopTyler LoopKBALvs IND
- T. LoopTyler LoopKBALvs IND
W. ReichardWill ReichardKMINvs GB
- W. ReichardWill ReichardKMINvs GB
H. ButkerHarrison ButkerKKCvs DEN
- H. ButkerHarrison ButkerKKCvs DEN
C. SantosCairo SantosKCHIvs CAR
- Jaguars D/STJaguars D/STDSTJAXvs CLE
Chargers D/STChargers D/STDSTLACvs ARI
- Chargers D/STChargers D/STDSTLACvs ARI
Titans D/STTitans D/STDSTTENvs NYJ
- Titans D/STTitans D/STDSTTENvs NYJ
Jets D/STJets D/STDSTNYJvs TEN
- Jets D/STJets D/STDSTNYJvs TEN
Eagles D/STEagles D/STDSTPHIvs WSH
- Eagles D/STEagles D/STDSTPHIvs WSH
Bears D/STBears D/STDSTCHIvs CAR
- Bears D/STBears D/STDSTCHIvs CAR
Packers D/STPackers D/STDSTGBvs MIN
- B. IrvingBucky IrvingRBTBvs CIN
J. WilliamsJameson WilliamsWRDETvs NO
- D. MooreDJ MooreWRBUFvs HOU
T. PollardTony PollardRBTENvs NYJ
- T. PollardTony PollardRBTENvs NYJ
S. LaPortaSam LaPortaTEDETvs NO
- S. LaPortaSam LaPortaTEDETvs NO
C. WatsonChristian WatsonWRGBvs MIN
- M. GoldenMatthew GoldenWRGBvs MIN
D. GoedertDallas GoedertTEPHIvs WSH
- D. GoedertDallas GoedertTEPHIvs WSH
P. WashingtonParker WashingtonWRJAXvs CLE
- M. EvansMike EvansWRSFvs LAR
K. Pitts Sr.Kyle Pitts Sr.TEATLvs PIT
- K. Pitts Sr.Kyle Pitts Sr.TEATLvs PIT
Q. JohnstonQuentin JohnstonWRLACvs ARI
Want full matchup analysis & AI picks? →
Save your roster and get a Start, Sit, or Toss-Up call on every player, every week — plus prop pages, matchup data, and AI-powered NFL analysis.
Add to My Team — freeOr browse this week’s NFL games or NFL player props.







