J.K. Dobbins or Mark Andrews: Who Should You Start?

The call

• He's the clear top option in Denver's backfield ahead of RJ Harvey and Jonah Coleman, and he's carrying no injury designation after the camp soft-tissue issue — the role is real.
• The usage caps the ceiling: a 51% snap share and 4% target share mean almost no PPR floor, so his value hinges on goal-line work in a game with just a 20.0 implied team total.
• A 2.5-point spread keeps the script neutral enough to avoid a full pass-script wipeout, but RB37 and 9.5 projected points is flex filler, not a confident 12-team start.
• Tip it to start if your alternative is a committee back with no goal-line role; tip it to sit if Harvey is carving out passing-down snaps.

The call

• Baltimore's 26.5 implied team total as a 3.5-point favorite means plenty of scoring chances, and Andrews is the one target who converts those trips inside the 10.
• A 17% target share on 62% of snaps is a route-running specialist's usage — he's not a blocker padding volume, he's the designed passing-game piece.
• TE15 and 10.1 projected points is exactly the tier where touchdown equity breaks ties, and Andrews carries more of it than almost anyone ranked near him.
• Risk is the 62% snap share capping his floor if Baltimore grinds out a lead on the ground — he's a start, not a set-and-forget.