Isaiah Likely or Mike Evans: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Usage is the driver: a 30% target share is elite for a tight end, and it offsets a modest 59% snap share that would normally cap his floor.
• The matchup reads unfavorable at 9 of 32, but that composite rests on a 2-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so it shouldn't outweigh his role.
• Game script is supportive: a 23.8 implied team total as a 3-point favorite points to a functional offense with red-zone chances.
• The risk is volatility. Two games of target data can regress, and the part-time snap share leaves a thin floor if the looks dry up. At TE14 with 12.2 projected, he still clears typical streaming options.

The call

• The offense projects for a 29.0 implied total as an 11.5-point favorite, and the ARI matchup grades 24 of 32 (softest = 32), so there's real scoring volume available — but the DvP read is only a 2-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so don't lean hard on it.
• Usage is the problem: 65% snap share and an 18% target share over two games is complementary, not featured, work, and that's exactly why he lands at WR31 with a 12.5-point projection.
• The hip is the swing factor — per NBC Sports (PFT, 9/21) it "will have to be managed this week" after he exited Week 2 and did not return. A managed workload plus a potential blowout script (-11.5) invites early rest and a run-heavy fourth quarter.
• Tip-in his favor: the reported Demarcus Robinson ankle injury thins the receiver room, which should concentrate targets if Evans clears the Questionable tag with no snap cap. Confirm his practice status before locking lineups.