Isaiah Likely or Michael Wilson: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Start Isaiah Likely: his scoring environment beats Michael Wilson's steadier role

Start Isaiah Likely: this call is narrow because Wilson has the steadier role and slightly better raw projection, but Arizona's low-scoring setup caps that edge. Likely's stronger consensus standing and friendlier team outlook matter more at tight end, where his seam and red-zone profile can turn limited snaps into a usable week. New York's plan to use him as a “big slot receiver” if Malik Nabers is not fully ready could expand his route access (Sports Illustrated (Giants On SI) 2026-09-02). Wilson remains the safer volume bet, and his production improved after Jacoby Brissett became quarterback (azcardinals.com 2026-09-03); the risk is that Likely's expanded deployment never materializes.

What flips it: Likely loses the edge if Malik Nabers is fully ready and the planned big-slot deployment disappears.

Sources: Sports Illustrated (Giants On SI) · Sep 2, 2026 · azcardinals.com · Sep 3, 2026

AI editor

Isaiah Likely

Isaiah Likely

TE14NYGvs DAL

Projected Points

Start· medium
Michael Wilson

Michael Wilson

WR37ARIvs LAC

Projected Points

Toss-Up

Isaiah Likely’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
-113 / -113
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 37.5
-113 / -118
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+320
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Michael Wilson’s market

REC
O/U 3.5
-130 / +102
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 43.5
-110 / -114
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+320
Anytime Touchdown Props →
DAL@
NYGSun, Sep 13, 8:20 PM ETView the game →
ARI@
LACSun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM ETView the game →

Why Isaiah Likely

Start· medium

Starting TE and pass-catching mismatch. Athletic seam-stretcher with red-zone flex ability.

TE14 with a 9.5-point projection, 59% snaps and a 14% target share in a near-pick'em game — startable volume at a thin position.

  • Likely’s seam-stretching and red-zone versatility give his limited role multiple paths to a touchdown.
  • A shortage of Giants wideouts could put him in receiver-like formations rather than a traditional tight-end lane.

The call

  • 9.5 projected PPR points is a real TE1-fringe number; at a position where the back half of starting lineups routinely lives on 6-7 points, TE14 with this projection clears the replacement bar.
  • Role is stable and healthy: 59% snap share and a 14% target share over 11 games, no injury designation, and he sits atop the TE depth slot.
  • Game script cooperates — a 1.5-point spread and a 23.5 implied team total point to a competitive, two-way passing game rather than a run-out-the-clock blowout in either direction.
  • The one sourced line describes a Giants 'big slot' plan and doesn't square with this matchup, so it's unverified noise — the call rests on the snap/target profile, not that report.

Latest on Likely

Scheme

With only five wide receivers on the projected depth chart, the Giants plan to deploy tight end Isaiah Likely as a 'big slot receiver' to offset a possible shortage if Malik Nabers isn't fully ready for Week 1.

Sports Illustrated (Giants On SI) · Sep 2, 2026

Why Michael Wilson

Toss-Up

WR2 and big-bodied outside target. Physical at the catch point with 1,000-yard breakout production and full-season availability.

Toss-up — WR37 by consensus and projection: 17.0 implied team total caps the ceiling, 20% target share in 2025.

  • Wilson’s outside-target role offers the safer weekly route floor than Likely’s more deployment-dependent workload.
  • His post-Brissett improvement shows genuine upside, even if Arizona’s scoring outlook limits the ceiling.

Latest on Wilson

Role

Michael Wilson's play and production improved substantially after Jacoby Brissett became the quarterback in the sixth game of 2025.

Michael Wilson Signs 3-Year Contract Extension with Cardinalsazcardinals.com · Sep 3, 2026

Michael Wilson is under contract with the Cardinals through the 2029 season after signing a three-year extension.

Michael Wilson Signs 3-Year Contract Extension with Cardinalsazcardinals.com · Sep 3, 2026
Michael Wilson gets his payday

Josh Weinfuss breaks down Michael Wilson's new three-year, $75 million extension with the Cardinals.

VideoESPN · Sep 4, 2026
Sources: Cardinals, WR Michael Wilson reach $75M extension

The Cardinals have signed wide receiver Michael Wilson to a three-year extension, with sources telling ESPN and NFL Network that the wide receiver's new deal is worth $75 million.

ESPN · Sep 3, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricIsaiah LikelyMichael Wilson
Projected points
Consensus rankTE14WR37
Opponent vs positionDALno ranking yetLACno ranking yet
Target share14%(2025)20%(2025)
Reception share15%(2025)18%(2025)
Implied total · spread23.5+1.517.0+11.5
Depth chartTE1WR2
Snap share59%(2025)81%(2025)

Signal breakdown

  • 9.5 vs 10.5 projected PPR pointsMichael Wilson +
  • Rank 14 vs 37Isaiah Likely +
  • Matchup (DvP composite)even
  • Implied 23.5 vs 17.0 team pointsIsaiah Likely +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 59% vs 81% snap shareMichael Wilson +

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