Hunter Henry or Quentin Johnston: Who Should You Start?

Preliminary board

2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Verdicts sharpen as practice reports land.

Henry's dependable TE1 role narrowly beats Johnston's contingent upside

Henry gets the call because his established TE1 role and reliable involvement provide the sturdier floor when the projections are essentially level. Johnston has the slightly better offensive setup and a stronger target rate, but Henry's seam and red-zone role makes his volume more bankable despite a tougher recent TE matchup. SI.com 2026-09-20 says McConkey's rib issue could push more work to Johnston, giving him the better ceiling if that status worsens. Henry's risk is that New England's modest scoring expectation limits the payoff from his otherwise stable usage.

What flips it: McConkey being ruled out, with Johnston's expected target share rising.

Sources: SI.com · Sep 20, 2026

AI editor

Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry

TE18NEvs JAX

Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium
Quentin Johnston

Quentin Johnston

WR47LACvs BUF

Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Hunter Henry’s market

ATD
Anytime TD
+230
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Quentin Johnston’s market

ATD
Anytime TD
+240
Anytime Touchdown Props →
NE@
JAXSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
LAC@
BUFSun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why Hunter Henry

Toss-Up· medium

TE1 and volume pass-catcher. Dependable seam and red-zone target with in-line blocking chops.

84% snaps and a 15% target share keep Henry usable, but TE18 with a top-10 toughest DvP draw and a 22.0 implied total is a coin flip.

  • Henry's in-line and red-zone responsibilities give him ways to remain useful even if New England's offense stalls.
  • The tight-end ranking gap matters more than the tiny projection difference because Henry's role is easier to trust weekly.

The call

  • Role is locked: 84% snap share and a 15% target share over two games make him New England's clear primary tight end, and there's no injury designation.
  • The matchup works against him — Jacksonville grades 10 of 32 in DvP versus tight ends (32 = softest), though the 2-game sample carries 0.00 confidence, so don't over-weight it.
  • A 22.0 implied team total in a 1.5-point game caps the ceiling; 10.6 projected points and a TE18 consensus rank sit just outside the every-week 12-team starter tier.
  • Tipping point: if your alternative is a sub-9-point streamer, play Henry for the target floor; if you have a top-12 TE or a matchup-proof option, sit him.

Why Quentin Johnston

Toss-Up· medium

Starting outside WR2. Big-bodied contested-catch target with red-zone scoring production.

WR47 at 10.9 projected sits below the 12-team start line, but 80% snaps and a 21% target share plus McConkey's rib doubt make him a live flex.

  • Johnston has the clearest ceiling if McConkey's injury opens additional work.
  • His softer matchup and contested-catch ability can quickly overcome a lower weekly floor if targets concentrate.

The call

  • The role is real: 80% snap share and a 21% target share as the WR-2 means volume isn't the question — the ceiling is. A 10.9-point projection and WR47 consensus rank land him just outside typical 12-team starter territory.
  • Matchup helps at the margins: Buffalo grades 26 of 32 in DvP composite (32 = softest), though that's a 2-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so don't lean hard on it.
  • Game script is neutral-to-slightly negative — a 22.8 implied team total with a 3.0 spread suggests a moderate-scoring game rather than the pass-heavy chase script Johnston needs for a spike week.
  • What tips it: if McConkey is out or limited by the rib injury, Johnston inherits the alpha target share and becomes a confident flex start. If McConkey plays full snaps, bench him for a safer floor.

Latest on Johnston

Role

With McConkey's status in doubt for Week 2, the Chargers were expected to lean more on Quentin Johnston, and bettors were told his target share could increase further if McConkey's rib injury limited him.

SI.com · Sep 20, 2026

Head-to-head stats

MetricHunter HenryQuentin Johnston
Projected points
Consensus rankTE18WR47
Opponent vs positionJAX · 10 of 322-game sampleBUF · 26 of 322-game sample
Receptions4 of 3227 of 32
Receiving Yards14 of 3229 of 32
Receiving TDs15 of 3222 of 32
Targets2 of 3231 of 32
Anytime TD13 of 3222 of 32
Target share15%21%
Reception share16%9%
Implied total · spread22.0+1.522.8+3.0
Depth chartTE1WR2
Snap share84%80%
Start/Sit record0–0+2 toss-ups0–2+1 toss-up

Recent form

Hunter Henry — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs PIT
Week 1vs SEA

Quentin Johnston — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs LV
Week 1vs ARI

Signal breakdown

  • 10.6 vs 10.9 projected PPR pointsQuentin Johnston +
  • Rank 18 vs 47Hunter Henry +
  • Opponent DvP rank 10 vs 26 (32 = softest)even
  • Implied 22.0 vs 22.8 team pointsQuentin Johnston +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 84% vs 80% snap shareHunter Henry +

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