Garrett Wilson or Isaiah Likely: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Start Wilson for the narrow PPR edge; Likely is still a viable TE start
Wilson's alpha role and heavier snap load give him a slim edge over Likely's better scoring environment and meaningful target involvement. The model's 0.30-point PPR margin is tiny, not a clear separation; it disappears in half-PPR and standard. Likely's mismatch and red-zone role keep him firmly startable, while the matchup rankings offer little to separate them given their two-game, zero-confidence samples. Wilson's risk is the Jets' limited scoring outlook, compounded by a recent game in which he saw only two targets after his third-quarter touchdown (ESPN 2026-09-23).
What flips it: A repeat of Wilson's post-touchdown target fade.
Sources: ESPN · Sep 23, 2026 · ESPN · Sep 20, 2026
AI editor
In standard and half-PPR scoring this is a coin flip.
Garrett Wilson
9.111.914.8 Projected Points
Isaiah Likely
7.69.912.2 Projected Points
Garrett Wilson’s market
Isaiah Likely’s market
Why Garrett Wilson
StartWR1 and alpha target. Elite separation quickness and contested-catch skill; missed time cut his sample last season.
Start — every-week WR start at consensus WR13: DET is the 9th-softest matchup vs WRs, 18.0 implied team total caps the ceiling.
- Wilson's separation and contested-catch skill give the Jets' alpha a way to win targets even when the offense is constrained.
- His return to an outside role gives him a clear perimeter assignment (ESPN 2026-09-20).
Latest on Wilson
Garrett Wilson was targeted seven times Sunday, with only two targets after his third-quarter touchdown.
Why Aaron Glenn is encouraged by the Jets' progressESPN, Yahoo Sports · Sep 23, 2026Wilson hopes to avoid hits and be able to deliver more explosive plays on the perimeter.
Jets' Offense Runs Pivotal 19-Play Drive
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Isaiah Likely
Start· mediumStarting TE and pass-catching mismatch. Athletic seam-stretcher with red-zone flex ability.
30% target share through 2 games and a 12.2-point projection make Likely a startable TE14 despite a tougher-looking DvP of 9 of 32.
- Likely's seam-stretching ability creates a big-play path beyond what his tight-end rank alone suggests.
- Red-zone flexibility gives Likely a direct route to scoring value in a game where his team has the stronger scoring outlook.
The call
- Usage is the driver: a 30% target share is elite for a tight end, and it offsets a modest 59% snap share that would normally cap his floor.
- The matchup reads unfavorable at 9 of 32, but that composite rests on a 2-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so it shouldn't outweigh his role.
- Game script is supportive: a 23.8 implied team total as a 3-point favorite points to a functional offense with red-zone chances.
- The risk is volatility. Two games of target data can regress, and the part-time snap share leaves a thin floor if the looks dry up. At TE14 with 12.2 projected, he still clears typical streaming options.
Latest on Likely
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Garrett Wilson | Isaiah Likely |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 9.111.914.8 | 7.69.912.2 |
| Consensus rank | WR13 | TE14 |
| Opponent vs position | DET · 24 of 322-game sample | TEN · 9 of 322-game sample |
| Receptions | 32 of 32 | 15 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 32 of 32 | 1 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | 15 of 32 | 1 of 32 |
| Targets | 28 of 32 | 16 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 15 of 32 | 13 of 32 |
| Target share | 24% | 30% |
| Reception share | 24% | 35% |
| Implied total · spread | 18.0+9.5 | 23.8-3.0 |
| Depth chart | WR1 | TE1 |
| Snap share | 82% | 59% |
| Start/Sit record | — | 1–1 |
Recent form
Garrett Wilson — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs GB | 11.714.216.7 |
| Week 1 | vs TEN | 7.910.913.9 |
Isaiah Likely — last 2 weeks
| Week 2 | vs LAR | 3.35.88.3 |
| Week 1 | vs DAL | 19.823.827.8 |
Signal breakdown
- 14.8 vs 12.2 projected PPR pointsGarrett Wilson +
- Rank 13 vs 14Garrett Wilson +
- Opponent DvP rank 24 vs 9 (32 = softest)even
- Implied 18.0 vs 23.8 team pointsIsaiah Likely +
- No injury designationseven
- 82% vs 59% snap shareGarrett Wilson +
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