Gardner Minshew II or Sam Darnold: Who Should You Start?

Start Darnold — the projection and game script edges are too wide to ignore.

Sam Darnold projects 14.0 to Minshew's 0.5 and plays in the better game script (24.0 implied team points to 17.0). No signal favors Minshew this week. The gap is wide.

Gardner Minshew II

QBARIvs LAC

0.50.50.5 Projected Points

Sit

Sam Darnold

QB25SEAvs NE

14.014.014.0 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Gardner Minshew II

Sit

QB2 with extensive spot-start experience. Gunslinger mentality, quick-game accuracy, limited arm strength.

Sit — projects QB60 this week: LAC is the 3rd-toughest matchup vs QBs, 17.0 implied team total caps the ceiling.

LAC ranks 3 of 32 against QBs (one of the tougher matchups, 17-game sample).
Vegas implies 17.0 team points as 11.5-point underdogs.
Listed QB on the latest depth chart with a 17% snap share in 2025.

Latest on Minshew

Arizona Cardinals vs. Green Bay Packers game highlights

VideoESPN · Aug 30, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Sam Darnold

Toss-Up

Starting QB with prototypical size and arm strength. Full 17-game workload, 4,000-yard passer whose turnover volume caps efficiency.

Toss-up — QB25 consensus, projects QB27 this week: 24.0 implied team total, 96% snap share in 2025.

NE ranks 13 of 32 against QBs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 17-game sample).
Vegas implies 24.0 team points as 3.5-point favorites.
Listed QB on the latest depth chart with a 96% snap share in 2025.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Gardner Minshew II	Sam Darnold
Projected points	0.50.50.5	14.014.014.0
Consensus rank	—	QB25
Opponent vs position	LAC · 3 of 3217-game sample	NE · 13 of 3217-game sample
Passing Yards	4 of 32	9 of 32
Passing TDs	2 of 32	15 of 32
Passing Completions	3 of 32	15 of 32
Passing Attempts	5 of 32	12 of 32
Interceptions	3 of 32	16 of 32
Implied total · spread	17.0+11.5	24.0-3.5
Depth chart	QB2	QB1
Snap share	17%(2025)	96%(2025)