Start Tony Pollard over Dylan Sampson — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Pollard's lead-back workload makes him the clear choice over Sampson

Tony Pollard gets the nod because his lead-back role and favorable game script give him a dependable path to touches, while Dylan Sampson is mainly a change-of-pace option. Sampson's receiving ability offers some PPR appeal, but his limited role and Cleveland's modest scoring outlook leave too little room for a big game. Pollard's weakness is his modest target involvement, so he is a fringe flex rather than a set-and-forget start, but that risk is smaller than betting on Sampson's splash plays.

What flips it: A last-minute reduction in Pollard's workload.

AI editor

Dylan Sampson

RB51CLEvs JAX

3.34.15.0 Projected Points

Sit

Tony Pollard

RB28TENvs NYJ

9.810.711.5 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Why Dylan Sampson

Sit

RB2 and change-of-pace back. Explosive receiving weapon out of the backfield on passing downs.

Sit — RB51 by consensus and projection: JAX is the 9th-toughest matchup vs RBs, 16.5 implied team total caps the ceiling.

Passing-down receiving ability gives Sampson a PPR escape hatch if Cleveland falls behind.
His explosive style can overcome a limited rushing role with one big play.

Why Tony Pollard

Toss-Up· medium

RB1 and lead back. One-cut zone runner with breakaway speed and 1,000-yard workload.

RB28 with a 63% snap share and 3-point favorite script, but an 8% target share caps the PPR floor — a fringe flex, not a set-and-forget start.

Pollard's lead-back status gives him the stronger touch floor in a game Tennessee is favored to control.
His breakaway speed adds ceiling beyond the steady workload, even with limited receiving volume.

The call

Role is real: 63% snap share over 17 games makes him the primary back, and a -3.0 spread with a 21.3 implied total points to a healthy dose of second-half carries if Tennessee is ahead.
The receiving side is the problem — an 8% target share means his PPR floor lives and dies on rushing volume and goal-line work, which is why he lands at RB28 on 11.5 projected points.
The DvP composite of 25 of 32 reads soft, but it comes with a 0-game sample and 0.00 confidence, so there's no real matchup edge to bank on here.
Tips to start if your alternative is a bench-level committee back or a low-volume WR3; tips to sit if you have anyone with a defined passing-game role.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Dylan Sampson	Tony Pollard
Projected points	3.34.15.0	9.810.711.5
Consensus rank	RB51	RB28
Opponent vs position	JAX · 9 of 320-game sample	NYJ · 25 of 320-game sample
Rushing Yards	1 of 32	28 of 32
Rushing TDs	4 of 32	29 of 32
Rushing Attempts	1 of 32	30 of 32
Receptions	24 of 32	8 of 32
Receiving Yards	21 of 32	21 of 32
Anytime TD	4 of 32	32 of 32
Target share	9%(2025)	8%(2025)
Reception share	12%(2025)	10%(2025)
Implied total · spread	16.5+7.5	21.3-3.0
Depth chart	RB2	RB1
Snap share	27%(2025)	63%(2025)
Start/Sit record	—	0–0+1 toss-up