Start Jaguars D/ST over Lions D/ST — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start the Jaguars — the opponent scoring and projection edges are too wide to ignore.

Jaguars D/ST faces the lower-scoring offense (16.5 implied points to 20.8) and projects 8.2 to the Lions's 7.4. the Lions's edge is lineup share, started rank 8 to 11. The gap is narrow.

Lions D/ST

D/STDETvs NO

7.47.47.4 Projected Points

Start

Jaguars D/ST

D/STJAXvs CLE

8.28.28.2 Projected Points

Start

Why Lions D/ST

Start

Start — the No. 4 defensive matchup this week: 7.4 pts projected vs NO.

NO's offense gives up 3.1 sacks and 1.4 turnovers a game (2025), near league average.
Vegas has NO at 20.8 points as 7-point dogs.
Under-started: only 62% of leagues have them in, 8th among defenses, against a No. 4 matchup.

Why Jaguars D/ST

Start

Start — the No. 1 defensive matchup this week: Vegas has CLE at 16.5 points, and 8.2 pts projected vs CLE.

CLE's offense gives up 3.0 sacks and 1.5 turnovers a game (2025), near league average.
Vegas has CLE at 16.5 points as 7.5-point dogs.
Under-started: only 49% of leagues have them in, 11th among defenses, against a No. 1 matchup.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Lions D/ST	Jaguars D/ST
Projected points	7.47.47.4	8.28.28.2
Projection rank	Proj.DST4	Proj.DST1
Started in	62% of leagues	49% of leagues
Opponent sacks allowed / game	3.1(2025)	3.0(2025)
Opponent turnovers / game	1.4(2025)	1.5(2025)
Opponent implied total	20.8	16.5
Home / away	Home	Home