Derrick Henry or Michael Mayer: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 2 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Henry’s touchdown equity gives him the edge over Mayer’s conditional volume

Start Derrick Henry: Baltimore’s strong scoring environment and his goal-line power make the projection gap more meaningful than the modest margin suggests. His 54% snap share and limited receiving role are real risks, but the Ravens’ likely lead creates the kind of late-game rushing work that suits him. Mayer’s target opportunity is appealing only if Brock Bowers remains out; Yahoo Sports 2026-09-17 says he is expected to stay atop the tight-end depth chart only in that scenario.

What flips it: Brock Bowers is active for Las Vegas.

Sources: baltimoreravens.com · Sep 16, 2026 · Yahoo Sports · Sep 17, 2026

AI editor

Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry

RB9BALvs NO

Projected Points

Start
Michael Mayer

Michael Mayer

TELVvs LAC

Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Derrick Henry’s market

RUSH YDS
O/U 94.5
-113 / -113
Rushing Yards Props →
REC
O/U 1.5
+171 / -221
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 6.5
-103 / -122
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
-260
Anytime Touchdown Props →

Michael Mayer’s market

REC
O/U 5.5
+111 / -141
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 44.5
-112 / -112
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+225
Anytime Touchdown Props →
NO@
BALSun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ETView the game →
LV@
LACSun, Sep 20, 4:05 PM ETView the game →

Why Derrick Henry

Start

RB1 and workhorse power back. Elite size-speed tackle-breaker with heavy volume and goal-line dominance.

Start — every-week RB start at consensus RB9: NO is the 7th-softest matchup vs RBs, 27.0 implied team total.

  • Baltimore’s projected lead should create extra fourth-quarter carries and goal-line chances for its power back.
  • Henry’s three-touchdown opener shows the ceiling his scoring role can unlock (baltimoreravens.com 2026-09-16).

Latest on Henry

Role

Derrick Henry opened the season with 144 rushing yards and three touchdowns against the Indianapolis Colts.

Late for Work: Emmitt Smith Believes Derrick Henry Could Break His All-Time Rushing Recordbaltimoreravens.com · Sep 16, 2026
Smith: Ravens' Henry has stamina to break NFL rushing record

Emmitt Smith acknowledged this week that Ravens running back Derrick Henry could surpass him as the league's rushing king.

ESPN · Sep 16, 2026
Ravens' Henry passes Allen for third all time in rushing TDs

Ravens running back Derrick Henry moved into third place on the NFL's all-time rushing touchdowns list by scoring three times Sunday.

ESPN · Sep 13, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Michael Mayer

Toss-Up· medium

TE2 in complementary role. Physical in-line blocker with reliable short-to-intermediate hands behind the starter.

Mayer's 10.0 projection and 24% target share only hold if Bowers sits — confirm inactives before locking him in a 12-team TE slot.

  • Mayer’s short-area role can still produce useful PPR output if the Raiders keep him as the primary tight end.
  • His biggest advantage is opportunity, not matchup: Bowers’ absence is what preserves his target path (Yahoo Sports 2026-09-17).

The call

  • Week 1 usage was real: 81% snap share, 24% target share and six catches on seven targets with Bowers out of the starting lineup — that's a locked-in TE1 workload if it repeats.
  • The entire case is conditional. The Yahoo report (2026-09-17) says he's expected to stay the top tight end only *if* Bowers sits Week 2; if Bowers is active, Mayer's target share craters and 10.0 points is unreachable.
  • Matchup and script are fine — LAC ranks 26 of 32 in DvP composite (softer end) and an 8.5-point deficit with a 17.0 implied total means plenty of trailing-script throws and checkdowns.
  • Tiebreaker: if Bowers is ruled out, start Mayer without hesitation; if Bowers plays, bench him for any streaming TE.

Latest on Mayer

Role

Mayer was replaced Bowers in the starting lineup for the Week 1 opener and had six catches on seven targets for 32 yards; he is expected to remain the top tight end if Bowers sits out Week 2.

Yahoo Sports · Sep 17, 2026
Raiders TE Michael Mayer gets 3-year, $45M extension, sources say

Tight end Michael Mayer, who is stepping in for an injured Brock Bowers to start the regular season, has received a multiyear extension from the Raiders.

ESPN · Sep 12, 2026
Raiders sign TE Michael Mayer to multi-year extension

Mayer has totaled 83 receptions for 788 receiving yards (9.5 avg.) and three touchdowns over 38 games (32 starts) in his first three NFL seasons.

raiders.com · Sep 12, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

MetricDerrick HenryMichael Mayer
Projected points
Consensus rankRB9—
Opponent vs positionNO · 26 of 321-game sampleLAC · 26 of 321-game sample
Rushing Yards30 of 32—
Rushing TDs28 of 32—
Rushing Attempts29 of 32—
Receptions25 of 3230 of 32
Receiving Yards23 of 3229 of 32
Anytime TD22 of 3220 of 32
Receiving TDs—21 of 32
Targets—32 of 32
Target share4%24%
Reception share6%29%
Implied total · spread27.0-7.517.0+8.5
Depth chartRB1TE2
Snap share54%81%
Start/Sit record—0–0+2 toss-ups

Recent form

Derrick Henry — last 1 week

Week 1vs IND

Michael Mayer — last 1 week

Week 1vs MIA

Signal breakdown

  • 17.6 vs 10.0 projected PPR pointsDerrick Henry +
  • Consensus position rankeven
  • Opponent DvP rank 26 vs 26 (32 = softest)even
  • Implied 27.0 vs 17.0 team pointsDerrick Henry +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 54% vs 81% snap shareMichael Mayer +

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