Start Pat Freiermuth over Darren Waller — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Freiermuth's steadier role gives him the narrow TE edge

Freiermuth gets the call because his established TE1 pass-catching role and stronger game environment outweigh Atlanta's tougher tight-end matchup. The edge is narrow, not cosmetic: at tight end, a modest projection gap matters when it comes with better consensus support and more dependable snaps. Waller has the better target-share signal, but his lighter snap role makes that volume less secure. The risk is that Waller converts his targets into a touchdown while Freiermuth gets squeezed by the matchup.

What flips it: A confirmed expansion of Waller's snap role before kickoff.

AI editor

Darren Waller

TE26CARvs CHI

4.65.87.1 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Pat Freiermuth

TE18PITvs ATL

4.96.78.4 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Darren Waller

Toss-Up

Toss-up — TE26 consensus, projects TE25 this week: 16% target share in 2025, 7.1 PPR projected vs CHI.

Waller's stronger target involvement gives him a path to beat the call if his passing-game role holds.
His softer-looking matchup helps, but the zero-game sample makes that edge unreliable.

Latest on Waller

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Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Pat Freiermuth

Toss-Up

TE1 in pass-catching role. Reliable chain-mover with red-zone size and dependable hands.

Toss-up — TE18 consensus, projects TE17 this week: ATL is the 3rd-toughest matchup vs TEs, 12% target share in 2025.

Freiermuth's TE1 role and red-zone size create a steadier route to useful PPR production.
His higher snap involvement makes the favorable team script more actionable despite Atlanta's difficult TE matchup.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Darren Waller	Pat Freiermuth
Projected points	4.65.87.1	4.96.78.4
Consensus rank	TE26	TE18
Opponent vs position	CHI · 13 of 320-game sample	ATL · 3 of 320-game sample
Receptions	20 of 32	3 of 32
Receiving Yards	13 of 32	8 of 32
Receiving TDs	9 of 32	1 of 32
Targets	16 of 32	4 of 32
Anytime TD	9 of 32	1 of 32
Target share	16%(2025)	12%(2025)
Reception share	16%(2025)	13%(2025)
Implied total · spread	21.0+2.5	22.8-3.0
Depth chart	TE3	TE1
Snap share	47%(2025)	53%(2025)