Dalton Kincaid or MarShawn Lloyd: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Consensus has him TE16 at 8.7 PPR points, which is right on the edge of the 12-team starting line — you're not gaining anything over a typical replacement TE.
• The usage is the problem: a 37% snap share across 12 games is part-time work, though a 15% target share says he's productive on the field he does see.
• Game environment is neutral at best — a 23.5 implied team total and a 1.5-point spread points to a tight, moderate-scoring game rather than the pass-volume shootout Kincaid needs.
• Tipping point: reports out of camp (ESPN, 2026-08-21) say Josh Allen wants him on the field more and that his 2025 snap and target averages understate his role. If he's playing near-full-time snaps this week, he moves to a clear start.

The call

• Sourced reports have Lloyd as the Packers' lead back with Josh Jacobs unavailable, projecting a 15-to-20 touch workload rather than a change-of-pace role — that's starter volume, not a rotational share.
• A 12.6-point PPR projection and RB33 consensus rank clear the bar for a 12-team flex/RB2 spot, and the touch forecast gives him upside beyond the number.
• Game script cooperates: Green Bay is a 1.5-point favorite with a 23.0 implied total, so there's no obvious pass-heavy chase mode to strip his carries.
• Risk is that he's unproven in a full-time role and workload estimates are projections — if Green Bay splits the backfield more evenly, he settles as a low-end flex.