Courtland Sutton or Isaiah Likely: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Sutton's role steadies him; Likely's matchup and TE scarcity keep this level

Sutton offers the safer weekly involvement as Denver's primary outside receiver, but his ceiling is tied to a modest scoring environment against Kansas City. Likely gives back volume with a lighter snap role, yet the thinner tight end landscape and New York's plan to use him as a big slot receiver add meaningful upside [Sports Illustrated (Giants On SI) 2026-09-02]. The call stays level: Sutton can win through steady routes and contested-catch work, while Likely can pull ahead if his expanded alignment turns into consistent targets; his snap rate is the clear risk.

What flips it: A confirmed big-slot deployment for Likely or evidence Sutton is Denver's primary red-zone read.

Sources: Sports Illustrated (Giants On SI) · Sep 2, 2026

AI editor

In standard and half-PPR scoring this flips to Likely.

Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton

WR34DENvs KC

Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium
Isaiah Likely

Isaiah Likely

TE14NYGvs DAL

Projected Points

Start· medium
DEN@
KCMon, Sep 14, 8:15 PM ETView the game →
DAL@
NYGSun, Sep 13, 8:20 PM ETView the game →

Why Courtland Sutton

Toss-Up· medium

WR1 and primary outside X receiver. Big-bodied contested-catch threat with red-zone and jump-ball value.

21% target share keeps Sutton flex-viable, but an 11.7-point projection and a 20.0 implied total vs KC cap the ceiling — WR34 is the definition of borderline.

  • Sutton's every-down role provides the steadier floor, even if Denver's limited scoring chances mute his touchdown path.
  • His outside-X and red-zone skill set gives him a direct route to outperforming a borderline flex ranking.

The call

  • Role is not the question: 85% snap share and a 21% target share mean he's the primary volume outlet in this offense regardless of the WR-2 label on the depth chart.
  • The environment is the problem — a 20.0 implied team total and a 2.5-point spread point to a tight, moderate-scoring game, which caps his touchdown equity and yardage upside.
  • Consensus has him at WR34 for 11.7 PPR points, essentially replacement level for the third WR slot in a 12-team league.
  • Tiebreaker: if your alternative projects under ~11 points or plays in a lower-total game, start Sutton for the target volume; if you have a WR in a shootout, sit him.

Why Isaiah Likely

Start· medium

Starting TE and pass-catching mismatch. Athletic seam-stretcher with red-zone flex ability.

TE14 with a 9.5-point projection, 59% snaps and a 14% target share in a near-pick'em game — startable volume at a thin position.

  • Likely's big-slot potential could expand his route involvement without requiring a touchdown to matter in PPR.
  • The stronger team scoring environment and tight-end scarcity make his lower raw volume easier to tolerate.

The call

  • 9.5 projected PPR points is a real TE1-fringe number; at a position where the back half of starting lineups routinely lives on 6-7 points, TE14 with this projection clears the replacement bar.
  • Role is stable and healthy: 59% snap share and a 14% target share over 11 games, no injury designation, and he sits atop the TE depth slot.
  • Game script cooperates — a 1.5-point spread and a 23.5 implied team total point to a competitive, two-way passing game rather than a run-out-the-clock blowout in either direction.
  • The one sourced line describes a Giants 'big slot' plan and doesn't square with this matchup, so it's unverified noise — the call rests on the snap/target profile, not that report.

Latest on Likely

Scheme

With only five wide receivers on the projected depth chart, the Giants plan to deploy tight end Isaiah Likely as a 'big slot receiver' to offset a possible shortage if Malik Nabers isn't fully ready for Week 1.

Sports Illustrated (Giants On SI) · Sep 2, 2026

Head-to-head stats

MetricCourtland SuttonIsaiah Likely
Projected points
Consensus rankWR34TE14
Opponent vs positionKCno ranking yetDALno ranking yet
Target share21%(2025)14%(2025)
Reception share19%(2025)15%(2025)
Implied total · spread20.0+2.523.5+1.5
Depth chartWR2TE1
Snap share85%(2025)59%(2025)
Start/Sit record0–0+1 toss-up—

Signal breakdown

  • 11.7 vs 9.5 projected PPR pointsCourtland Sutton +
  • Rank 34 vs 14Isaiah Likely +
  • Matchup (DvP composite)even
  • Implied 20.0 vs 23.5 team pointsIsaiah Likely +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 85% vs 59% snap shareCourtland Sutton +

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