Courtland Sutton or DeVonta Smith: Who Should You Start?

Preliminary board

2026 Week 3 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Verdicts sharpen as practice reports land.

Start Smith: his target funnel outweighs Sutton’s touchdown path

Smith’s 34% target share gives him a much stronger weekly volume foundation, and the projection gap reflects a real separation in opportunity—not just a small ranking edge. Sutton’s WR1 outside-X role and contested-catch ability offer a meaningful touchdown route, but his smaller target share makes him more dependent on converting those chances. The identical matchup grades do not give either receiver an edge. Smith’s main risk is that his target concentration is based on only two games and could regress.

What flips it: Smith’s target share falling materially as Sutton’s red-zone opportunities concentrate.

AI editor

Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton

WR34DENvs LAR

Projected Points

Toss-Up
DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith

WR16PHIvs CHI

Projected Points

Start

Courtland Sutton’s market

ATD
Anytime TD
+225
Anytime Touchdown Props →

DeVonta Smith’s market

REC
O/U 5.5
-127 / +100
Receptions Props →
REC YDS
O/U 70.5
-125 / -105
Receiving Yards Props →
ATD
Anytime TD
+160
Anytime Touchdown Props →
LAR@
DENSun, Sep 27, 8:20 PM ETView the game →
PHI@
CHIMon, Sep 28, 8:15 PM ETView the game →

Why Courtland Sutton

Toss-Up

WR1 and primary outside X receiver. Big-bodied contested-catch threat with red-zone and jump-ball value.

Toss-up — WR34 consensus, projects WR43 this week: 16% target share, 10.9 PPR projected vs LAR.

  • Sutton’s big-bodied red-zone and jump-ball role gives him a scoring path even without Smith’s volume.
  • His WR1 outside-X role keeps him relevant if Denver needs a contested catch.

Why DeVonta Smith

Start

WR1-caliber outside receiver. Elite route technician with reliable hands and high target volume.

Start — every-week WR start at consensus WR16: 34% target share, 15.6 PPR projected vs CHI.

  • Smith’s route-technique and reliable hands make his heavy target load more usable, not just more frequent.
  • His every-week starter verdict fits a role that can deliver without relying on a touchdown.

Head-to-head stats

MetricCourtland SuttonDeVonta Smith
Projected points
Consensus rankWR34WR16
Opponent vs positionLAR · 13 of 322-game sampleCHI · 13 of 322-game sample
Receptions7 of 326 of 32
Receiving Yards7 of 3218 of 32
Receiving TDs22 of 3215 of 32
Targets5 of 3210 of 32
Anytime TD22 of 3215 of 32
Target share16%34%
Reception share13%33%
Implied total · spread21.3+3.022.5+1.5
Depth chartWR2WR1
Snap share75%92%
Start/Sit record0–0+2 toss-ups—

Recent form

Courtland Sutton — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs JAX
Week 1vs KC

DeVonta Smith — last 2 weeks

Week 2vs TEN
Week 1vs WSH

Signal breakdown

  • 10.9 vs 15.6 projected PPR pointsDeVonta Smith +
  • Rank 34 vs 16DeVonta Smith +
  • Opponent DvP rank 13 vs 13 (32 = softest)even
  • Implied 21.3 vs 22.5 team pointsDeVonta Smith +
  • No injury designationseven
  • 75% vs 92% snap shareDeVonta Smith +

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