Start Darren Waller over Charlie Kolar — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Waller's target share is real work; Kolar is a blocker who occasionally releases

Kolar's matchup and team total look great on paper, but that's a mirage for a tight end who runs a route on one out of every twenty snaps — he's TE1 on his own depth chart in name only, a blocking-first piece with no real receiving role to feed. Waller, despite playing on a much worse offense with a tighter spread, actually gets targeted, and that usage is why he projects for real production even in a middling matchup. The gap in projected points here isn't noise — it reflects two completely different jobs at the position, not two similar players separated by matchup quality. The risk with Waller is volume consistency in a run-first Carolina offense, but even a down week for him likely clears Kolar's ceiling.

What flips it: A camp report signaling CAR leans further into two-tight-end passing sets would only help Waller's case.

Sources: ESPN · Aug 26, 2026

AI editor

In standard scoring this is a coin flip.

Charlie Kolar

TE26LACvs ARI

1.41.82.3 Projected Points

Sit· high

Darren Waller

TE26CARvs CHI

4.65.87.1 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Charlie Kolar

Sit· high

TE1 in a blocking-first role. Large-frame in-line piece with limited target volume.

Kolar is a 40% snap, 5% target-share TE2 with a 2.3-point projection — TE26 is below any startable line in 12-team PPR.

Plays behind a big spread and elevated implied total, which normally helps pass-catchers on that offense.
No injury concerns clouding his role, so what you see in playing time is what you get.

The call

The usage is the whole story: 40% snap share and a 5% target share across 13 games means he's a blocking-first TE, not a pass-game piece.
A 2.3-point consensus projection at TE26 sits well under replacement level — nearly any streaming TE offers a higher floor and ceiling.
The DvP composite ranks ARI 27 of 32 (softest end), but it's a 0-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so there's no matchup edge to lean on.
The 28.5 implied total and -11.5 spread point to a run-heavy, ball-control second half, which further caps his target volume rather than boosting it.

Why Darren Waller

Toss-Up

Toss-up — TE26 consensus, projects TE25 this week: 16% target share in 2025, 7.1 PPR projected vs CHI.

16% target share dwarfs Kolar's 5%, meaning he's actually schemed into the passing game.
Even on a offense implied for just 21 points, his role gives him more paths to production than Kolar's blocking assignment.

Latest on Waller

2026 Carolina Panthers training camp: Latest intel, updates

Catch up on our updates from Panthers training camp, including intel on QBs, position battles and potential breakouts.

ESPN · Aug 26, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Charlie Kolar	Darren Waller
Projected points	1.41.82.3	4.65.87.1
Consensus rank	TE26	TE26
Opponent vs position	ARI · 27 of 320-game sample	CHI · 13 of 320-game sample
Receptions	30 of 32	20 of 32
Receiving Yards	30 of 32	13 of 32
Receiving TDs	26 of 32	9 of 32
Targets	24 of 32	16 of 32
Anytime TD	26 of 32	9 of 32
Target share	5%(2025)	16%(2025)
Reception share	5%(2025)	16%(2025)
Implied total · spread	28.5-11.5	21.0+2.5
Depth chart	TE1	TE3
Snap share	40%(2025)	47%(2025)