Brandon Aubrey or Chase McLaughlin: Who Should You Start?

2026 Week 1 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.

Aubrey's elite leg and stronger Dallas scoring outlook make him the clear kicker play

Aubrey's combination of distance reliability and a better Dallas scoring environment gives him more ways to deliver than McLaughlin. The projection gap matters more at kicker than it would at quarterback, especially with Aubrey's higher expected attempt volume and stronger consensus standing. McLaughlin's 65-yard range and calm conditions keep him playable, but Tampa Bay's lower scoring outlook leaves less margin for missed opportunities. Aubrey's main risk is Dallas converting stalls into touchdowns instead of settling for field goals.

What flips it: A surprise downgrade for Aubrey or a major shift toward Tampa Bay scoring.

AI editor

Brandon Aubrey

Brandon Aubrey

K1DALvs NYG

Projected Points

Start
Chase McLaughlin

Chase McLaughlin

K15TBvs CIN

Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium
DAL@
NYGSun, Sep 13, 8:20 PM ETView the game →
TB@
CINSun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ETView the game →

Why Brandon Aubrey

Start

Starting K with elite leg strength. Reliable from extreme distance and on kickoffs.

Start — K1 by consensus, projects K2 this week: 2.3 FG tries projected, above the 2.0 median, and 1.6 red-zone stalls a game.

  • Aubrey's extreme-distance profile protects his floor when Dallas stalls outside the red zone.
  • Dallas offers the better scoring environment, giving Aubrey more paths to multiple kicks or extra points.

Why Chase McLaughlin

Toss-Up· medium

Starting placekicker with big-leg range and a 65-yard career long. Reliable from distance, though his 84.9% career accuracy sits around league average.

K15 at 8.4 points with just 2.0 FG tries projected — calm weather and a 65-yard leg are the only edges over a streamer.

  • McLaughlin's 65-yard range remains a real asset in calm, open-air conditions.
  • His big leg can beat the outlook if Tampa Bay creates drives that stall late rather than finish.

The call

  • The volume profile is ordinary: 1.8 made of 2.0 attempts plus 2.1 extra points on a 23.5 implied total is a middling 8.4-point projection, and K15 sits right at the replacement line in a 12-team league.
  • The quality is real — 84% accuracy (32/38), a 50-plus make in 7 games and a 65-yard long give him touchdown-independent upside that most streamers lack, and a calm forecast with the roof open removes weather risk.
  • 1.4 red-zone stalls per game means Tampa manufactures a steady field-goal floor rather than bleeding chances, so he's locked in as PK1 with no designation — the usage is safe, just not high-ceiling.
  • Tips to start if you value the big leg and clean weather over a kicker on a higher-scoring offense; tips to sit if a rival streamer has a materially better implied total this week.

Head-to-head stats

MetricBrandon AubreyChase McLaughlin
Projected points
Consensus rankK1K15
Projected FG attempts2.32.0
Red-zone stalls / game1.6(2025)1.4(2025)
Kicking conditionsCalm forecast at kickoffCalm forecast at kickoff
Implied total · spread25.0-1.523.5+3.5
Field-goal %85.7%(2025)84.2%(2025)
Depth chartK1K1
Start/Sit record—0–0+1 toss-up

Signal breakdown

  • 9.9 vs 8.4 projected PPR pointsBrandon Aubrey +
  • Rank 1 vs 15Brandon Aubrey +
  • 2.3 vs 2.0 projected attemptsBrandon Aubrey +
  • 1.6 vs 1.4 red-zone stalls per gameBrandon Aubrey +
  • 5 mph, 73°F, clear vs 5 mph, 88°F, cleareven
  • Implied 25.0 vs 23.5 team pointsBrandon Aubrey +
  • No injury designationseven

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