Start Ashton Jeanty over Jaylen Warren — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Jeanty — the projection and consensus rank edges are too wide to ignore.

Ashton Jeanty projects 18.1 to Warren's 12.6 and is the higher consensus play (RB9 to RB24). Warren's edge is availability, a clean report to Jeanty's Q. The gap is wide.

Ashton Jeanty

RB9LVvs MIA

14.616.318.1 Projected Points

Start

Jaylen Warren

RB24PITvs ATL

9.911.312.6 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Why Ashton Jeanty

Start

RB1 and feature back. Elite contact balance and tackle-breaking power with legitimate three-down receiving role and heavy volume.

Start — every-week RB start at consensus RB9: MIA is the 10th-softest matchup vs RBs, 15% target share in 2025.

Carries a Questionable tag — usually plays, but monitor the final report.
MIA ranks 23 of 32 against RBs (one of the softer matchups, 0-game sample).
Vegas implies 22.3 team points as 3.0-point favorites.
Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 78% snap share in 2025.

Latest on Jeanty

Status

Ashton Jeanty is recovering from a likely ankle sprain, and it is uncertain whether he will miss regular-season time.

Biggest decisions facing the Raiders ahead of roster cutdown deadline ESPN · Aug 29, 2026

Status

Ashton Jeanty is currently on the mend.

Kubiak: Ashton Jeanty is 'on the mend'raiders.com · Aug 25, 2026

Raiders GM says Ashton Jeanty in 'good spot' with recovery

Vegas RB Ashton Jeanty's status for Week 1 is still uncertain but GM John Spytek said the second-year player is in a "good spot" in his recovery.

ESPN · Sep 1, 2026

Raiders' Klint Kubiak says injured Ashton Jeanty 'on the mend'

Asked Tuesday about the severity of Ashton Jeanty's injury and if the second-year player will begin the season on the injured reserve, coach Klint Kubiak simply said, "He's on the mend."

ESPN · Aug 25, 2026

Sources: Raiders RB Jeanty believed to have sprained ankle

Las Vegas running back Ashton Jeanty, who had to be helped off the practice field Sunday, is believed to have sprained his ankle, sources told ESPN's Adam Schefter and NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, and the Raiders still are unsure how long he will be out.

ESPN · Aug 24, 2026

Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Why Jaylen Warren

Toss-Up· medium

RB1 and lead back. Compact, contact-balance runner with reliable third-down pass-protection and receiving work.

RB24 at 12.6 projected with a 51% snap share — flex-viable in a favored script, but the committee split caps the ceiling.

ATL ranks 13 of 32 against RBs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 0-game sample).
Vegas implies 22.8 team points as 3.0-point favorites.
Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 51% snap share in 2025.

The call

Warren is healthy with no designation and sits at RB24 on 12.6 projected PPR points — right on the 12-team RB2/flex borderline, not a set-and-forget starter.
A 51% snap share means this is still a rotation; his 9% target share gives a PPR floor but he isn't the guaranteed goal-line or bell-cow back.
Pittsburgh being a 3-point favorite with a 22.8 implied total points to positive run-script volume in the second half, which is where Warren's value spikes.
Matchup is neutral-to-slightly-tough (13 of 32) and drawn from a 0-game sample with zero confidence, so it shouldn't move the needle either way — if he handles early-down work he's a clear flex start; if it stays a true split, he's touchdown-dependent.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Ashton Jeanty	Jaylen Warren
Projected points	14.616.318.1	9.911.312.6
Consensus rank	RB9	RB24
Opponent vs position	MIA · 23 of 320-game sample	ATL · 13 of 320-game sample
Rushing Yards	26 of 32	20 of 32
Rushing TDs	19 of 32	4 of 32
Rushing Attempts	21 of 32	19 of 32
Receptions	26 of 32	12 of 32
Receiving Yards	25 of 32	15 of 32
Anytime TD	23 of 32	9 of 32
Target share	15%(2025)	9%(2025)
Reception share	16%(2025)	12%(2025)
Implied total · spread	22.3-3.0	22.8-3.0
Depth chart	RB1	RB1
Snap share	78%(2025)	51%(2025)
Injury designation	Q	—
Start/Sit record	—	0–0+1 toss-up