Start Aaron Jones Sr. over Tyler Allgeier — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Jones — the projection and consensus rank edges are too wide to ignore.

Aaron Jones Sr. projects 10.3 to Allgeier's 6.8 and is the higher consensus play (RB34 to RB45). No signal favors Allgeier this week. The gap is wide.

Aaron Jones Sr.

RB34MINvs GB

7.58.910.3 Projected Points

Toss-Up· medium

Tyler Allgeier

RB45ARIvs LAC

5.46.16.8 Projected Points

Sit

Why Aaron Jones Sr.

Toss-Up· medium

RB1 and veteran lead back. Balanced runner with reliable receiving chops, though workload now shared.

RB34 at 10.3 projected in a true 1a/1b with Jordan Mason — 12% target share keeps him PPR-viable, but 55% snaps cap the ceiling.

GB ranks 17 of 32 against RBs (a middle-of-the-road matchup, 0-game sample).
Vegas implies 21.5 team points as 1.5-point underdogs.
Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 55% snap share in 2025.

The call

Yahoo's depth-chart reporting frames Jones and Jordan Mason as 1a/1b co-starters, with Mason possibly getting extra early-down work — that's a hard cap on Jones' touch ceiling and the reason a 55% snap share overstates his lead-back value.
The 12% target share is the saving grace in PPR; receiving work travels regardless of who gets the goal-line carries, and a 1.5-point spread means no game script that buries him.
Matchup is dead neutral (17 of 32 DvP, and on a zero-game sample with no confidence behind it) and the 21.5 implied team total is middling — nothing here elevates him above his RB34 consensus rank.
Tip it to start if Mason is downgraded or you need the PPR floor at flex; tip it to sit if you have any every-down back or a pass-catching option with a better implied total on your bench.

Why Tyler Allgeier

Sit

Power back splitting a committee backfield. Compact downhill runner and short-yardage/goal-line finisher with red-zone scoring value.

Sit — RB45 consensus, projects RB47 this week: LAC is the 8th-toughest matchup vs RBs, 17.0 implied team total caps the ceiling.

LAC ranks 8 of 32 against RBs (one of the tougher matchups, 0-game sample).
Vegas implies 17.0 team points as 11.5-point underdogs.
Listed RB on the latest depth chart with a 30% snap share in 2025.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Aaron Jones Sr.	Tyler Allgeier
Projected points	7.58.910.3	5.46.16.8
Consensus rank	RB34	RB45
Opponent vs position	GB · 17 of 320-game sample	LAC · 8 of 320-game sample
Rushing Yards	21 of 32	9 of 32
Rushing TDs	19 of 32	12 of 32
Rushing Attempts	27 of 32	6 of 32
Receptions	20 of 32	6 of 32
Receiving Yards	8 of 32	7 of 32
Anytime TD	9 of 32	6 of 32
Target share	12%(2025)	3%(2025)
Reception share	13%(2025)	4%(2025)
Implied total · spread	21.5+1.5	17.0+11.5
Depth chart	RB1	RB2
Snap share	55%(2025)	30%(2025)
Start/Sit record	0–0+1 toss-up	—