Aaron Jones Sr. or Tucker Kraft: Who Should You Start?
2026 Week 2 · deterministic head-to-head · Verdicts based on PPR scoring.
Kraft’s established role beats Jones’ shakier lead-back workload
Kraft gets the nod because his TE1 role gives him a sturdier weekly floor than Jones’ lead-back label currently delivers. Green Bay’s stronger scoring environment and Kraft’s immediate post-ACL usage make the modest projection gap more meaningful at tight end (packers.com 2026-09-18). Jones has the better pure ceiling as a veteran runner and receiver, but his shared workload makes the call a narrow one with real committee risk.
What flips it: An announced expansion of Jones’ passing-game role or any restriction on Kraft after his ACL return.
Sources: packers.com · Sep 18, 2026
AI editor
In standard and half-PPR scoring this is a coin flip.
Aaron Jones Sr.
12.013.114.1 Projected Points
Tucker Kraft
6.38.410.6 Projected Points
Aaron Jones Sr.’s market
Tucker Kraft’s market
Why Aaron Jones Sr.
Toss-Up· mediumRB1 and veteran lead back. Balanced runner with reliable receiving chops, though workload now shared.
14.1 projected points look startable, but a 46% snap share, 4% target share and RB35 consensus rank scream committee — flex-only in 12-team PPR.
- Jones’ veteran lead-back talent keeps his ceiling live if Minnesota turns the shared workload into a steadier role.
- His receiving ability offers a path to survive even when the rushing work is divided.
The call
- The model's 14.1 PPR projection is RB2-caliber, but consensus has him at RB35 — that gap is a red flag, not a green light, and it traces back to usage.
- A 46% snap share and 4% target share point to a true committee role with almost no passing-game floor, which is where PPR value lives.
- Matchup and script are neutral: Chicago grades 18 of 32 vs the position on a 1-game sample with 0.00 confidence, and a 21.0 implied total with a 3.5-point spread gives no strong tailwind either way.
- What tips it: if the snap share climbs toward 60% or he takes over third-down work, he's a clear flex start; if it stays under 50% with no targets, sit him for a back with locked-in volume.
Latest on Jones
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Why Tucker Kraft
Start· mediumTE1 and primary seam threat. Physical yards-after-catch producer and capable in-line blocker; returning from injury.
TE9 at 10.6 projected with a locked-in role — 66% snaps, 15% target share, and fully back from the ACL after 3-65 in Week 1.
- Kraft’s first game showed immediate involvement, not merely a nominal TE1 designation (packers.com 2026-09-18).
- The ACL concern is less actionable after the team confirmed he is fully back (packers.com 2026-09-18).
The call
- Consensus TE9 at 10.6 projected points clears the bar for a 12-team PPR starting tight end; there's no replacement-level alternative worth the swap.
- Role is secure: 66% snap share and 15% target share as the clear TE1, and packers.com confirms he's fully back from the torn ACL after a 45-snap, 3-catch, 65-yard Week 1.
- Game script fits — Green Bay is favored by 5.5 with a 24.0 implied total, so there's plenty of scoring volume and red-zone work available to him.
- Only real caution is the matchup grade (8 of 32 vs TE), but that's a one-game sample with 0.00 confidence and shouldn't outweigh the role.
Latest on Kraft
Tucker Kraft played 45 snaps in Week 1 and caught three passes for 65 yards.
Contract extension is dream come true for Tucker Kraftpackers.com · Sep 18, 2026Tucker Kraft is fully back from the torn ACL that ended his 2025 campaign.
Contract extension is dream come true for Tucker Kraftpackers.com · Sep 18, 2026General Manager Brian Gutekunst announced the transaction Saturday
The Packers and tight end Tucker Kraft have reached agreement on a four-year extension worth up to $92 million, sources told ESPN.
Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.
Head-to-head stats
| Metric | Aaron Jones Sr. | Tucker Kraft |
|---|---|---|
| Projected points | 12.013.114.1 | 6.38.410.6 |
| Consensus rank | RB35 | TE9 |
| Opponent vs position | CHI · 18 of 321-game sample | NYJ · 8 of 321-game sample |
| Rushing Yards | 16 of 32 | — |
| Rushing TDs | 15 of 32 | — |
| Rushing Attempts | 11 of 32 | — |
| Receptions | 12 of 32 | 14 of 32 |
| Receiving Yards | 31 of 32 | 14 of 32 |
| Anytime TD | 22 of 32 | 1 of 32 |
| Receiving TDs | — | 1 of 32 |
| Targets | — | 11 of 32 |
| Target share | 4% | 15% |
| Reception share | 0% | 14% |
| Implied total · spread | 21.0+3.5 | 24.0-5.5 |
| Depth chart | RB1 | TE1 |
| Snap share | 46% | 66% |
| Start/Sit record | 0–0+2 toss-ups | 0–1 |
Recent form
Aaron Jones Sr. — last 1 week
| Week 1 | vs GB | 10.010.010.0 |
Tucker Kraft — last 1 week
| Week 1 | vs MIN | 6.58.09.5 |
Signal breakdown
- 14.1 vs 10.6 projected PPR pointsAaron Jones Sr. +
- Rank 35 vs 9Tucker Kraft +
- Opponent DvP rank 18 vs 8 (32 = softest)even
- Implied 21.0 vs 24.0 team pointsTucker Kraft +
- No injury designationseven
- 46% vs 66% snap shareTucker Kraft +
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