Aaron Jones Sr. or Jaylen Warren: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Timeshare role is the problem: 46% snap share and a 4% target share mean he needs efficiency or goal-line work to clear his 11.6 projection, not volume.
• Matchup is neutral at best — Chicago ranks 18 of 32 in the DvP composite off a one-game sample with zero confidence, so there's no edge to lean on either way.
• Vegas has the offense at a 21.0 implied total as a 3.5-point underdog; trailing football funnels work to the pass game, and he isn't the receiving back here.
• Tip it to start if he's confirmed as the goal-line/two-minute back or the snap share climbs toward 60%; otherwise he's a bench-with-upside flex in 12-team PPR.

The call

• Role is the problem: a 37% snap share means he's not the every-down back, and the 11.4 projection lands him at RB29 — right on the 12-team flex line.
• New England's defense grades 10 of 32 vs the position (32 = softest), so this is a tougher-than-average box to run into, though it's a 1-game sample with 0.00 confidence attached.
• Game script cuts both ways: a 19.5 implied total and 4.5-point spread limit the ceiling, but trailing football feeds his 16% target share, which is where his PPR floor lives.
• Tipping point: if he's the pass-game back on third downs and the Steelers fall behind, he's a usable flex; if this stays a low-scoring grind with a split backfield, bench him for a back with a locked-in workload.