Aaron Jones Sr. or Jameson Williams: Who Should You Start?

The call

• Timeshare role is the problem: 46% snap share and a 4% target share mean he needs efficiency or goal-line work to clear his 11.6 projection, not volume.
• Matchup is neutral at best — Chicago ranks 18 of 32 in the DvP composite off a one-game sample with zero confidence, so there's no edge to lean on either way.
• Vegas has the offense at a 21.0 implied total as a 3.5-point underdog; trailing football funnels work to the pass game, and he isn't the receiving back here.
• Tip it to start if he's confirmed as the goal-line/two-minute back or the snap share climbs toward 60%; otherwise he's a bench-with-upside flex in 12-team PPR.

The call

• Role is not in question: WR-2 on the depth chart at 84% snap share with a 23% target share, and he's the primary deep threat for Jared Goff after a 65-catch, 1,117-yard 2025 season.
• A 24.8 implied team total with a 3.0 spread means Detroit is expected to score and stay in a two-way game — good volume environment for a field-stretching WR2.
• The DvP composite ranks Buffalo 22 of 32 vs the position, a mild edge, but it's a 1-game sample with 0.00 confidence, so treat the matchup as neutral rather than a bonus.
• Main risk is boom-bust deep-ball dependence — if the vertical shots don't connect, the floor is thin despite the target share.