Aaron Jones Sr. or George Kittle: Who Should You Start?

The call

• The model's 14.1 PPR projection is RB2-caliber, but consensus has him at RB35 — that gap is a red flag, not a green light, and it traces back to usage.
• A 46% snap share and 4% target share point to a true committee role with almost no passing-game floor, which is where PPR value lives.
• Matchup and script are neutral: Chicago grades 18 of 32 vs the position on a 1-game sample with 0.00 confidence, and a 21.0 implied total with a 3.5-point spread gives no strong tailwind either way.
• What tips it: if the snap share climbs toward 60% or he takes over third-down work, he's a clear flex start; if it stays under 50% with no targets, sit him for a back with locked-in volume.

The call

• Consensus has him TE7 at 10.5 projected PPR points; in a 12-team league that is a locked-in starter over any replacement-level tight end.
• San Francisco's 28.5 implied total and -10.5 spread point to a high-scoring, red-zone-heavy afternoon, and Kittle is the offense's primary seam and goal-line target at a 15% target share.
• The risk is real: Kubiak said the Week 1 workload would be managed in his return from the January Achilles tear, and the 46% snap share reflects that — a double-digit lead late could cap his volume further.
• Miami's DvP composite ranks 9 of 32 against the position, but that comes off a single game with 0.00 confidence and shouldn't move the needle against Kittle's talent and role.