Start Mark Andrews over Rashid Shaheed — Week 1 Start/Sit Verdict

Start Andrews: his red-zone role gives him the edge over Shaheed’s splash-play appeal

Andrews is the better play because his veteran red-zone role is attached to the stronger scoring environment, while Shaheed needs a big gain to change the matchup. The projection gap is modest, but it matters more at tight end, where Andrews’ touchdown access separates him from a volatile WR2. Shaheed’s speed gives him a real ceiling and his target involvement keeps this from being a runaway call. The risk is Andrews’ part-time snap role, which could leave him dependent on a few high-value opportunities.

What flips it: A confirmed expansion of Shaheed’s route volume.

AI editor

Mark Andrews

TE11BALvs IND

6.68.410.1 Projected Points

Start· medium

Rashid Shaheed

WR57SEAvs NE

5.97.18.4 Projected Points

Toss-Up

Why Mark Andrews

Start· medium

TE1 and red-zone mismatch. Veteran seam-stretcher with strong hands and quarterback rapport.

TE11 with a 17% target share in a 26.5-point implied offense — red-zone role and favorable game script make him a fine TE1 play.

His red-zone mismatch gives the stronger offense a direct scoring path, not just a volume-based case.
The risk is a modest route presence: a few missed drives can erase his advantage.

The call

A 17% target share on 62% of snaps is a genuine TE1 workload, and Andrews' value is concentrated near the goal line, where Baltimore's 26.5 implied total gives him multiple scoring looks.
Vegas has the Ravens as 3.5-point favorites with a healthy team total — the neutral-to-positive script keeps the offense balanced instead of pass-chasing away from the tight end.
The Colts grade 20 of 32 vs the position, a mild edge, but the 0-game sample means it shouldn't move the needle either way.
Risk is the usual Andrews boom-bust: 10.1 projected points is TE11 territory, so a touchdown-less afternoon leaves him near replacement level — you're starting him for the ceiling.

Why Rashid Shaheed

Toss-Up

Starting WR2 and pure vertical burner. Elite straight-line speed, field-tilting deep threat with return-game background.

Toss-up — WR57 consensus, projects WR58 this week: 24.0 implied team total, 19% target share in 2025.

Shaheed can win with one explosive catch, giving him a higher spike-week path than his ranking suggests.
His downside is game-flow dependence; deep targets are less reliable than Andrews’ scoring role.

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Reported by the sources listed — not independently verified.

Head-to-head stats

Metric	Mark Andrews	Rashid Shaheed
Projected points	6.68.410.1	5.97.18.4
Consensus rank	TE11	WR57
Opponent vs position	IND · 20 of 320-game sample	NE · 12 of 320-game sample
Receptions	25 of 32	7 of 32
Receiving Yards	31 of 32	6 of 32
Receiving TDs	9 of 32	22 of 32
Targets	24 of 32	5 of 32
Anytime TD	9 of 32	22 of 32
Target share	17%(2025)	19%(2025)
Reception share	17%(2025)	17%(2025)
Implied total · spread	26.5-3.5	24.0-3.5
Depth chart	TE1	WR2
Snap share	62%(2025)	61%(2025)